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Unidentified Components in Reduced Rank Regression Estimation of ECM's

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Abstract

Reduced rank regression procedures in error correction models (ECM's) permit consistent estimation of the cointegration space but do not provide consistent estimates of individual structural relations when the dimension of the cointegration space is greater than one. Indeed, individual structural cointegrating equations are unidentified without additional a priori restrictions, just as in the conventional simultaneous equations framework. The effect of this lack of identification is explored by considering the distributions and limit distributions of reduced rank regression estimates of unidentified components of the cointegrating matrix in a typical VAR formulation of the ECM. Some recommendations are made for empirical practice.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d10a/d1003.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1003.

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Length: 11 pages
Date of creation: Oct 1991
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1003

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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Keywords: Cointegration; error correction models; identification problem;

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References

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  1. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March.
  2. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1987. "Spherical Matrix Distributions and Cauchy Quotients," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 823, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Hiro Y. Toda & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "Vector Autoregression and Causality: A Theoretical Overview and Simulation Study," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1001, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. Park, Joon Y, 1992. "Canonical Cointegrating Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 119-43, January.
  5. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "The Tail Behavior of Maximum Likelihood Estimates of Cointegrating Coefficients in Error Correction Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 999, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  7. Hiro Y. Toda & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "Vector Autoregression and Causality," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 977, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  8. Park, J.Y. & Ogaki, M., 1991. "Inference in Cointegrated Models Using VAR Prewhitening to Estimate Shortrun Dynamics," RCER Working Papers 281, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  9. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "The Distribution of FIML in the Leading Case," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 739, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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Cited by:
  1. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1993. "Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1047, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Giannini, Carlo & Lanzarotti, Antonio & Seghelini, Mario, 1995. "A traditional interpretation of macroeconomic fluctuations: The case of Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 131-155, March.

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