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What Accounts for the Decline in Crime?

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Author Info
Imrohoroglu, A.
Merlo, A.
Rupert, P.

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Abstract

In this paper we analyze recent trends in aggregate property crime rates in the United States. We propose a dynamic equilibrium model which guides our quantitative investigation of the major determinants of observed patterns of crime. Our main findings can be summarized as follows. First, the model is capable of reproducing the drop in crime between 1980 and 1996. Second, the most important factors that account for the observed decline in property crime are the higher apprehension probability, the stronger economy, and the aging of the population. Third, the effect of unemployment on crime is negligible. Fourth, the increased inequality prevented an even larger decline in crime. Overall, our analysis can account for the behavior of the time series of property crime rates over the past quarter century.

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File URL: http://econ.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/9188/RR00-11.PDF
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Paper provided by C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University in its series Working Papers with number 00-11.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cvs:starer:00-11

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Postal: C.V. Starr Center, Department of Economics, New York University, 19 W. 4th Street, 6th Floor, New York, NY 10012
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Web page: http://econ.as.nyu.edu/object/econ.cvstarr.html
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Postal: C.V. Starr Center, Department of Economics, New York University, 19 W. 4th Street, 6th Floor, New York, NY 10012
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Related research
Keywords: PROPERTY CRIME; INEQUALITY; DYNAMICS;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
D99 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Other

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Grogger, Jeffrey, 1995. "The Effect of Arrests on the Employment and Earnings of Young Men," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 51-71, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1996. "Crime, Punishment, and the Market for Offenses," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 43-67, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kenneth Burdett & Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2003. "Crime, Inequality, and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1764-1777, December. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Grogger, Jeff, 1998. "Market Wages and Youth Crime," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(4), pages 756-91, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Juhn, Chinhui & Murphy, Kevin M & Pierce, Brooks, 1993. "Wage Inequality and the Rise in Returns to Skill," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 410-42, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Thomas A. Garrett & Lesli S. Ott, 2008. "City business cycles and crime," Working Papers 2008-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  2. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Ingrid Nielsen & Russell Smyth, 2005. "Is there a Natural Rate of Crime?," Monash Economics Working Papers 18/05, Monash University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Paolo Buonanno, 2003. "The Socioeconomic Determinants of Crime. A Review of the Literature," Working Papers 63, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2003. [Downloadable!]
  4. Imai, Susumu & Krishna, Kala, 2001. "Employment, Dynamic Deterrence and Crime," Working Papers 1-01-2, Pennsylvania State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Alan Krueger, 2002. "Inequality, Too Much of a Good Thing," Working Papers 845, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Patrick Bayer & Randi Pintoff & David E. Pozen, 2003. "Building Criminal Capital Behind Bars: Social Learning in Juvenile Corrections," Working Papers 864, Economic Growth Center, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Kenneth Burdett & Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2003. "An On-the-Job Search Model of Crime, Inequality, and Unemployment," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-030, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. John P. Conley & Ping Wang, 2004. "Crime, Ethics and Occupational Choice: Endogenous Sorting in a Closed Model," Working Papers 0402, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University. [Downloadable!]
  9. Antonio Merlo, 2001. "The Research Agenda: Dynamic Model of Crime and Punishment," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(2), April. [Downloadable!]
  10. Paolo Buonanno, 2003. "Identifying the Effect of Education on Crime. Evidence from the Italian Regions," Working Papers 65, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2003. [Downloadable!]
  11. Garett Jones & Ali Kutan, 2004. "Volatile Interest Rates, Volatile Crime Rates: A new argument for interest-rate smoothing," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-694, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  12. Drago, Francesco & Galbiati, Roberto & Vertova, Pietro, 2008. "Prison Conditions and Recidivism," IZA Discussion Papers 3395, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  13. Calvó-Armengol, Antoni & Verdier, Thierry & Zenou, Yves, 2006. "Strong and Weak Ties in Employment and Crime," CEPR Discussion Papers 5448, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Kenneth Burdett & Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2002. "Crime, Inequality, and Unemployment, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-029, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Sep 2003. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Nilsson, Anna, 2004. "Income inequality and crime: The case of Sweden," Working Paper Series 2004:6, IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation. [Downloadable!]
  16. Nilsson, Anna, 2004. "Income Inequality and Crime: The Case of Sweden," Research Papers in Economics 2004:3, Stockholm University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  17. Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti Gomes & Santos, Marcelo Rodrigues dos, 2008. "The Effect of Social Security, Demography and Technology on Retirement," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 683, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  18. Paolo Buonanno, 2003. "Crime, Education and Peer Pressure," Working Papers 64, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2003. [Downloadable!]
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