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Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model with an Application to House Price Returns

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Author Info
Antonio F. Galvao, Jr. () (galvao@illinois.edu)
Gabriel V. Montes-Rojas () (Department of Economics, City University, London)
Gabriel Sung Y. Park () (Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University)
Abstract

This paper studies quantile regression in an autoregressive dynamic framework with exogenous stationary covariates. Hence, we develop a quantile autoregressive distributed lag model (QADL). We show that these estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal. Inference based on Wald and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests for general linear restrictions is proposed. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to evaluate the properties of the estimators. We demonstrate the potential of the QADL model with an application to house price returns in the United Kingdom. The results show that house price returns present a heterogeneous autoregressive behavior across the quantiles. The real GDP growth and interest rates also have an asymmetric impact on house prices variations.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, City University, London in its series City University Economics Discussion Papers with number 09/04.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cty:dpaper:0904

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Keywords: quantile autoregression; distributed lag model; autoregressive model;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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  3. FRANÇOIS ORTALO-MAGNÉ & SVEN RADY, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 73(2), pages 459-485, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Ortalo-Magne, Francois & Rady, Sven, 1999. "Boom in, bust out: Young households and the housing price cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 755-766, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Campbell, John Y. & Cocco, Joao F., 2007. "How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 591-621, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2004. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 367-381, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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