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Detecting the Presence of Informed Price Trading Via Structural Break Tests

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Author Info

  • Olmo, J.
  • Pilbeam, K.
  • Pouliot, W.

Abstract

The occurrence of abnormal returns before unscheduled announcements is usually identified with informed price movements. Therefore, the detection of these observations beyond the range of returns due to the normal day-to-day activity of financial markets is a concern for regulators monitoring the right functioning of financial markets and for investors concerned about their investment portfolios. In this article we introduce a novel method to detect informed price movements via structural break tests for the intercept of an extended CAPM model describing the risk premium of financial returns. These tests are based on the use of a U-statistic type process that is sensitive to detecting changes in the intercept that occur very early in the evaluation period and that can be used to construct a consistent estimator of the timing of the change. As a byproduct, we show that estimators of the timing of change constructed from standard CUSUM statistics are inconsistent and therefore fail to provide useful information about the presence of informed price movements.

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File URL: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/1580/1/0910_olmo.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, City University London in its series Working Papers with number 09/10.

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Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cty:dpaper:09/10

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Postal: Department of Economics, Social Sciences Building, City University London, Whiskin Street, London, EC1R 0JD, United Kingdom,
Phone: +44 (0)20 7040 8500
Web page: http://www.city.ac.uk
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Related research

Keywords: CUSUM tests; ECAPM; Informed Price Movements; Insider Trading; Linear Regression Models; Structural Change; U-statistics;

References

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  1. Altissimo, Filippo & Corradi, Valentina, 2003. "Strong rules for detecting the number of breaks in a time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 207-244, December.
  2. Vo, Minh T., 2008. "Strategic trading when some investors receive information before others," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 319-332.
  3. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter & Kontrus, Karl, 1989. "A new test for structural stability in the linear regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 307-318, February.
  4. Pouliot, W. & Olmo, J., 2008. "U-statistic Type Tests for Structural Breaks in Linear Regression Models," Working Papers 08/15, Department of Economics, City University London.
  5. Kramer, Walter & Ploberger, Werner & Alt, Raimund, 1988. "Testing for Structural Change in Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1355-69, November.
  6. Maddala,G. S. & Kim,In-Moo, 1999. "Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Structural Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521587822, April.
  7. Filippo Altissimo & Valentina Corradi, 2000. "Strong Rules for Detecting the Number of Breaks in a Time Series," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0574, Econometric Society.
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