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U-statistic Type Tests for Structural Breaks in Linear Regression Models

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Author Info
Jose Olmo () (Department of Economics, City University, London)
William Pouliot (Department of Economics, City University, London)

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Abstract

This article introduces a U-statistic type process that is based on a kernel function which can depend on nuisance parameters. It is shown here that this process can accommodate very easily anti-symmetric kernels very useful for detecting changing patterns in the dynamics of time series. This theory is applied to structural break hypothesis tests in linear regression models. In particular, the flexibility of these processes will be exploited to introduce a simultaneous and joint test that exhibit statistical power against changes in either intercept or slope. In contrast to the literature, these tests are able to distinguish between rejections due to changes in intercept from rejections due to changes in slope; allow control of global errors rate; and are explicitly designed to have power when the distribution error is asymmetric. These tests can also incorporate different weight functions devised to detect changes early as well as later on in the sample, and show very good performance in small samples. These tests, therefore, outperform CUSUM type tests widely employed in this literature.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics, City University, London in its series City University Economics Discussion Papers with number 08/15.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cty:dpaper:0815

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Related research
Keywords: Change-Point tests; CUSUM test; Linear regression models; Stochastic processes; U-statistics;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Altissimo, F. & Corradi, V., 2000. "Strong Rules for Detecting the Number of Breaks in a Time Series," Discussion Papers 00/11, University of Exeter, School of Business and Economics.
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  2. Kramer, Walter & Ploberger, Werner & Alt, Raimund, 1988. "Testing for Structural Change in Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1355-69, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Dufour, J.M., 1981. "Recursive Stability Analysis of Linear Regression Relationships," Cahiers de recherche 8129, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  4. Altissimo, Filippo & Corradi, Valentina, 2003. "Strong rules for detecting the number of breaks in a time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 207-244, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter & Kontrus, Karl, 1989. "A new test for structural stability in the linear regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 307-318, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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