The Impact of Heavy Tails and Comovements in Downside-Risk Diversification

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The Impact of Heavy Tails and Comovements in Downside-Risk Diversification

Author Info

Jesus Gonzalo
Jose Olmo () (Department of Economics, City University, London)

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Abstract

This paper uncovers the factors influencing optimal asset allocation for downside-risk averse investors. These are comovements between assets, the product of marginal tail probabilities, and the tail index of the optimal portfolio. We measure these factors by using the Clayton copula to model comovements and extreme value theory to estimate shortfall probabilities. These techniques allow us to identify useless diversification strategies based on assets with different tail behaviour, and show that in case of financial distress the asset with heavier tail drives the return on the overall portfolio down. An application to financial indexes of UK and US shows that mean-variance and downside-risk averse investors construct different efficient portfolios.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, City University, London in its series City University Economics Discussion Papers with number 07/02.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cty:dpaper:0702

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Paper
- Jesus Gonzalo & Jose Olmo, 2007. "The impact of heavy tails and comovements in downside-risk diversification," Economics Working Papers we20070208, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía. [Downloadable!]

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General
C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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Danielsson, Jon & Jorgensen, Bjorn N. & Sarma, Mandira & de Vries, Casper G., 2006. "Comparing downside risk measures for heavy tailed distributions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 202-208, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Casper G. de Vries & Bjørn N. Jorgensen & Sarma Mandira & Jon Danielsson, 2005. "Comparing Downside Risk Measures for Heavy Tailed Distributions," FMG Discussion Papers dp551, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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