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Incertitude sur l’effet global ou sur les délais d’action de la politique monétaire : politique robuste et activisme

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  • Daniel LASKAR

    (PSE et CEPREMAP)

Abstract

On compare deux cas d'incertitude qui ont abouti à des arguments de référence en faveur de moins d'activisme de la politique monétaire : celui où l'incertitude porte sur l'effet global de la politique, comme dans Brainard (1967) ; et celui où elle porte sur ses délais d'action, comme dans Friedman (1960). On montre que l'approche bayésienne donne des résultats similaires dans les deux cas, mais que ce n'est qu'avec une incertitude sur les délais d'action qu'une approche en termes de robustesse (critère du minimax) conduit nécessairement, à moins d'activisme. De plus, dans ce cas, l'activisme de la politique robuste est encore plus faible que ce que donne l'approche bayésienne.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) with number 2007043.

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Length: 36
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvre:2007043

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Keywords: Politique robuste; incertitude;

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