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Illusive Persistence in German Unemployment

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Author Info

  • Rolf TSCHERNIG

    (Universität München)

  • Klaus F. ZIMMERMANN

    (Universität München & CEPR, London)

Abstract

The non-stationarity of many macroeconomic time-series has lead to an increased demand for economic models that are able to generate fragile equilibria. For instance, the natural unemployment rate is al- lowed to shift over time depending on past unemployment. Actually, many European unemployment series seem to exhibit a unit root or persistence. This view is questioned in the paper using German data on unemployment. A new class of time-series models, the fractionally integrated ARMA model, that allows the difference parameter to take real values, enables the researcher to separate long memory and short memory in the data. It is shown that using this approach the unit root hypothesis is rejected but unemployment exhibits long memory.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) with number 1992044.

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Length: 12
Date of creation: 01 Sep 1992
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvre:1992044

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Cited by:
  1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Yuliya Lovcha, 2014. "Testing Unemployment Theories: A Multivariate Long Memory Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 4570, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Mohamed Boutahar & Imene Mootamri & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2008. "A fractionally integrated exponential STAR model applied to the US real effective exchange rate," Working Papers halshs-00340831, HAL.
  3. Peijie Wang, 2003. "Cycles and Common Cycles in Property and Related Sectors," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 6(1), pages 22-42.
  4. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2008. "Modelling the US, UK and Japanese unemployment rates: Fractional integration and structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(11), pages 4998-5013, July.
  5. Mohamed Boutahar & Imene Mootamri & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2007. "An exponential FISTAR model applied to the US real effective exchange rate," Working Papers halshs-00353836, HAL.
  6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2006. "Modelling Structural Breaks in the US, UK and Japanese Unemployment Rates," CESifo Working Paper Series 1734, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Pedro Garcia-del-Barrio, . "New Revelations about Unemployment Persistence in Spain," Faculty Working Papers 10/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  8. van Dijk, Dick & Franses, Philip Hans & Paap, Richard, 2002. "A nonlinear long memory model, with an application to US unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 135-165, October.

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