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How should retirement policy adjust to the baby bust ?

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Author Info

  • de la Croix, David

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) ; Belgian National Fund for Scientific Research (FNRS))

  • Mahieu, Géraldine

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) ; Belgian National Fund for Scientific Research (FNRS))

  • Rillaers, Alexandra

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))

Abstract

To cope with the observed drop in fertility, four policy options are generally considered : lowering pension benefits, increasing social security contributions, postponing retirement, and reducing public debt in advance. To assess the respective merits of these options, we analyze the optimal allocation of resources in an overlapping generations economy where old agents care about leisure. We characterize the decentralization of the optimum both when the retirement age is compulsory and when it results from a private decision. We conclude that the policy recommendation of postponing retirement is not robust to a wide class of preferences and technologies. In contrast, policies aimed at increasing capital through a reduction in public debt are more robust.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) with number 2001003.

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Length: 28
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2001003

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Keywords: pensions; fertility; debt; first-best policy; decentralization;

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References

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  1. Marchand, Maurice & Michel, Philippe & Pestieau, Pierre, 1996. "Intergenerational transfers in an endogenous growth model with fertility changes," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 33-48, April.
  2. Hu, Sheng Cheng, 1979. "Social Security, the Supply of Labor, and Capital Accumulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 274-83, June.
  3. Meijdam, A.C. & Verbon, H.A.A., 1997. "Aging and public pensions in an overlapping-generations model," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-73874, Tilburg University.
  4. Deardorff, Alan V, 1976. "The Optimum Growth Rate for Population: Comment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 17(2), pages 510-15, June.
  5. Bertrand Crettez & Patricia Le Maitre, 2002. "Optimal age of retirement and population growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 737-755.
  6. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1998. "Simulating the Privatization of Social Security in General Equilibrium," NBER Chapters, in: Privatizing Social Security, pages 265-311 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. MICHEL, Philippe & PESTIEAU, Pierre & ,, 1999. "Social security and early retirement in an overlapping-generations growth model," CORE Discussion Papers 1999051, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  8. Juan C. Conesa & Dirk Krueger, 1999. "Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(4), pages 757-795, October.
  9. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
  10. repec:cup:macdyn:v:1:y:1997:i:1:p:7-44 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 62, OECD Publishing.
  12. HUANG, HE & IMROHOROG[caron]LU, SELAHATTIN & SARGENT, THOMAS J., 1997. "Two Computations To Fund Social Security," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(01), pages 7-44, January.
  13. Boadway, Robin & Marchand, Maurice & Pestieau, Pierre, 1991. "Pay-as-You-Go Social Security in a Changing Environment," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 257-80, November.
  14. Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge," Working papers 553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  15. Michel, Philippe, 1990. "Some Clarifications on the Transversality Condition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 705-23, May.
  16. Peters, Wolfgang, 1991. "Public Pensions in Transition: An Optimal Policy Path," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 155-75, May.
  17. Atkinson, A B & Sandmo, A, 1980. "Welfare Implications of the Taxation of Savings," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(359), pages 529-49, September.
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  19. Blanchet, Didier & Kessler, Denis, 1991. "Optimal Pension Funding with Demographic Instability and Endogenous Returns on Investment," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 137-54, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pierre Pestieau & Grégory Ponthière, 2011. "Optimal Fertility along the Lifecycle," Working Papers hal-00612609, HAL.
  2. de la Croix, David & Pierrard, Olivier & Sneessens, Henri R., 2010. "Aging and Pensions in General Equilibrium: Labor Market Imperfections Matter," IZA Discussion Papers 5276, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. David de la CROIX & Pierre PESTIEAU & Gregory PONTHIERE, 2009. "How Powerful is Demography? The Serendipity Theorem Revisited," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2009040, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  4. Jorgensen, Ole Hagen, 2011. "Macroeconomic and policy implications of population aging in Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5519, The World Bank.
  5. Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard & Jorgensen, Ole Hagen, 2010. "Reform and backlash to reform : economic effects of ageing and retirement policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5470, The World Bank.
  6. PESTIEAU, Pierre & PONTHIERE, Grégory, 2011. "Optimal fertility along the lifecycle," CORE Discussion Papers 2011033, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  7. Andersen, Torben M, 2008. "Fiscal Sustainability and Demographics - Should We Save or Work More?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7044, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Jorgensen, Ole Hagen & Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard, 2010. "Labor supply and retirement policy in an overlapping generations model with stochastic fertility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5382, The World Bank.
  9. Jørgensen, Ole Hagen & Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard, 2009. "Labour supply and retirement policy in an overlapping generations model with stochastic fertility," Discussion Papers of Business and Economics 1/2009, Department of Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark.

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