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A Powerful Test For Conditional Heteroscedasticity For Financial Time Series With Highly Persistent Volatilities

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Julio Rodríguez
Esther Ruiz ()
Abstract

Traditional tests for conditional heteroscedasticity are based on testing for significant autocorrelations of squared or absolute observations. In the context of high frequency time series of financial returns, these autocorrelations are often positive and very persistent, although their magnitude is usually very small. Moreover, the sample autocorrelations are severely biased towards zero, specially if the volatility is highly persistent. Consequently, the power of the traditional tests is often very low. In this paper, we propose a new test that takes into account not only the magnitude of the sample autocorrelations but also possible patterns among them. This aditional information makes the test more powerful in situations of empirical interest. The asymptotic distribution of the new statistic is derived and its finite sample properties are analized by means of Monte Carlo experiments. The performance of the new test is compared with other alternative tests. Finally, we illustrate the results analysing several real time series of financial returns.

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Paper provided by Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría in its series Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers with number ws036716.

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Date of creation: Nov 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:ws036716

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  2. Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1999. "Long-term equity anticipation securities and stock market volatility dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 75-99, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1996. "Stochastic Volatility," Cahiers de recherche 9613, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. M. Angeles Carnero & Daniel Peña & Esther Ruiz, 2001. "Is Stochastic Volatility More Flexible Than Garch?," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws010805, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
  6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Breidt, F. Jay & Crato, Nuno & de Lima, Pedro, 1998. "The detection and estimation of long memory in stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 325-348. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 1994. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 371-89, October.
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