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Did the Euro Change the Effect of Fundamentals on Growth and Uncertainty?

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  • Jaime Luque

    ()

  • Abderrahim Taamouti

    ()

Abstract

We present empirical evidence on whether the introduction of the euro has changed the effect of economic fundamentals on the growth rates of euro countries’ GDPpc and GDPpc volatility. We find that the effect of increments in debt on economic growth exhibits a structural break in 1999. A robustness check attributes this break to the financial crisis, however. There is also a statistically significant structural break in the impact of increments in government debt on economic uncertainty. This result is robust to a battery of robustness checks, including exclusion of the recent financial crisis period and comparison with non-euro European countries.

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File URL: http://e-archivo.uc3m.es/bitstream/10016/14893/5/we1221.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía in its series Economics Working Papers with number we1221.

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Date of creation: Sep 2013
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Handle: RePEc:cte:werepe:we1221

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Keywords: GDPpc growth rate; GDPpc growth rate volatility; Fundamentals; Government debt; Currency union; Euro zone;

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  1. Barry Eichengreen, 1991. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?," NBER Working Papers 3579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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