Did the Euro Change the Effect of Fundamentals on Growth and Uncertainty?
AbstractWe present empirical evidence on whether the introduction of the euro has changed the effect of economic fundamentals on the growth rates of euro countries’ GDPpc and GDPpc volatility. We find that the effect of increments in debt on economic growth exhibits a structural break in 1999. A robustness check attributes this break to the financial crisis, however. There is also a statistically significant structural break in the impact of increments in government debt on economic uncertainty. This result is robust to a battery of robustness checks, including exclusion of the recent financial crisis period and comparison with non-euro European countries.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía in its series Economics Working Papers with number we1221.
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision:
GDPpc growth rate; GDPpc growth rate volatility; Fundamentals; Government debt; Currency union; Euro zone;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
- F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-07-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2012-07-23 (European Economics)
- NEP-FDG-2012-07-23 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-MAC-2012-07-23 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Barry Eichengreen, 1991.
"Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?,"
NBER Working Papers
3579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eichengreen, Barry, 1990. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?," CEPR Discussion Papers 478, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Eichengreen, Barry, 1990. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt40m5g6pp, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Barry Eichengreen., 1990. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?," Economics Working Papers 90-151, University of California at Berkeley.
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