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Testing The Existence Of Clustering In The Extreme Values

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Jose Olmo ()

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Abstract

This paper introduces an estimator for the extremal index as the ratio of the number of elements of two point processes defined by threshold sequences un, vn and a partition of the sequence in different blocks of the same size. The first point process is defined by the sequence of the block maxima that exceed un. This paper introduces a thinning of this point process, defined by a threshold vn with vn > un, and with the appealing property that under some mild conditions the ratio of the number of elements of both point processes is a consistent estimator of the extremal index. The method supports a hypothesis test for the extremal index, and hence for testing the existence of clustering in the extreme values. Other advantages are that it allows some freedom to choose un, and it is not very sensitive to the choice of the partition. Finally, the stylized facts found in financial returns (clustering, skewness, heavy tails) are tested via the extremal index, in this case for the DaX returns

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Paper provided by Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía in its series Economics Working Papers with number we051809.

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Date of creation: Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cte:werepe:we051809

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  1. Robert Engle & Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Modelling the persistence of conditional variances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1-50. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-26.

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