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Can we curb retail sales volatility through marketing mix actions?

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  • Mercedes Esteban Bravo

    ()

  • Gökhan Yildirim

    ()

  • Jose Vidal-Sanz

    ()

Abstract

Sales uncertainty is a central problem for marketing management. Marketers tend to focus on expected sales, rather than short-term time-varying oscillations. With long supply-chain streams, the Bullwhip effect can turn retail sales volatility into a major problem for upstream companies. While it has been recognized that conditional expected sales change through time (for a review see Dekimpe and Hanssens, 2000), marketers have not yet started to modeling explicitly time variation of sales' conditional variances. In this paper we focus on this issue, modeling and forecasting time-varying retail sales and marketing mix volatility and their crossed effects within brand, and between competitive brands. We analyze up to 6 product categories sold by Dominick's Finer Foods, finding volatility and co-volatilities in all of them. We discuss managerial implications for brand management and competitive strategy

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa in its series Business Economics Working Papers with number wb112407.

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Date of creation: Nov 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cte:wbrepe:wb112407

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Keywords: Sales; Volatility; Bullwhip effect; Marketing mix;

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  1. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  2. Bo, Hong, 2001. "Volatility of sales, expectation errors, and inventory investment: Firm level evidence," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 273-283, August.
  3. Comte, F. & Lieberman, O., 2003. "Asymptotic theory for multivariate GARCH processes," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 61-84, January.
  4. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
  5. Jeantheau, Thierry, 1998. "Strong Consistency Of Estimators For Multivariate Arch Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(01), pages 70-86, February.
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