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Stop invasion! The electoral tipping point in anti-immigrant voting

Author

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  • Massimo Bordignon

    (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
    Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)

  • Matteo Gamalerio
  • Edoardo Slerca
  • Gilberto Turati

Abstract

Why do anti-immigrant political parties have more success in areas that host fewer immigrants? Using regression discontinuity design, structural breaks search methods and data from a sample of Italian municipalities, we show that the relationship between the vote shares of anti-immigrant parties and the share of immigrants follows a U-shaped curve, which exhibits a tipping-like behavior around a share of immigrants equal to 3.35 %. We estimate that the vote share of the main Italian anti-immigrant party (Lega Nord) is approximately 6 % points higher for municipalities below the threshold. Using data on local labor market characteristics and on the incomes of natives and immigrants, we provide evidence which points at the competition in the local labor market between natives and immigrants as the more plausible explanation for the electoral success of anti-immigrant parties in areas with low shares of immigrants. Alternative stories find less support in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimo Bordignon & Matteo Gamalerio & Edoardo Slerca & Gilberto Turati, 2020. "Stop invasion! The electoral tipping point in anti-immigrant voting," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def086, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    • Handle: RePEc:ctc:serie1:def086
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    Cited by:

    1. Augusto Cerqua & Federico Zampollo, 2021. "Deeds or words? The local influence of anti-immigrant parties on foreigners’ flows in Italy," Working Papers 6/21, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    2. Boitani, Andrea & Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin, 2023. "News and narratives: A cointegration analysis of Russian economic policy uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    3. Pieroni, Luca & Roig, Melcior Rosselló & Salmasi, Luca, 2023. "Italy: Immigration and the evolution of populism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    4. Victor Ginsburgh & Sergio Perelman & Pierre Pestieau, 2021. "Populism and Social Polarization in European Democracies [Bien-Être et Vote]," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 67(4), pages 371-404.
    5. Basiglio Stefania & Foresta Alessandra & Turati Gilberto, 2021. "Impatience and crime. Evidence from the NLSY97," Working papers 073, Department of Economics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino.
    6. Daniele Checchi & Alessandra Fenizia & Claudio Lucifora, 2021. "PUBLIC SECTOR JOBS: Working in the public sector in Europe and the US," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def107, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    7. Fanfani, Bernardo, 2022. "Tastes for discrimination in monopsonistic labour markets," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. Russell Davidson & Andrea Monticini, 2023. "Bootstrap Performance with Heteroskedasticity," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def130, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    9. Zurlinden, Noémie & Valladares-Esteban, Arnau & Gottlieb, Charles, 2020. "The Effects of Asylum Seekers on Political Outcomes," Economics Working Paper Series 2018, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    10. Irene Torrini & Claudio Lucifora & Antonio Russo, 2022. "The Long-Term Effects of Hospitalization on Health Care Expenditures: An Empirical Analysis for the Young-Old Population," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def117, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migration; extreme-right parties; anti-immigrant parties; populism; tipping point; regression discontinuity design.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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