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Agricultural Transformation and Farmers' Expectations: Experimental Evidence from Uganda

Author

Listed:
  • Jacopo Bonan

    (Politecnico di Milano)

  • Harounan Kazianga

    (Oklahoma State University)

  • Mariapia Mendola

    (Università Milano Bicocca)

Abstract

Adoption rate of profitable agricultural technologies in Africa remains low and variations in adoption choices across farmers are yet to be fully understood. This paper studies Ugandan subsistence smallholders’ decisions to adopt profitable cash crops (oilseeds) that can allow them to transition to commercial farming. More specifically, we exploit the randomized roll-out of a national extension service program in order to investigate the role of farmers’ expectations in crop take–up decisions as well as the extent to which ex-ante beliefs about crop profitability explain adoption. We find that, randomly assigned extension services lead to an increase of oilseeds adoption by 15%, and farmers who under-estimate the oilseeds price at baseline are the most likely to adopt new crops. By testing how farmers update their beliefs after being randomly provided with extension services, our results point towards changes in expectations as an important driver of agricultural technology take-up.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacopo Bonan & Harounan Kazianga & Mariapia Mendola, 2019. "Agricultural Transformation and Farmers' Expectations: Experimental Evidence from Uganda," Development Working Papers 458, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    • Handle: RePEc:csl:devewp:458
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    Cited by:

    1. Islam, Asadul & Ushchev, Philip & Zenou, Yves & Zhang, Xin, 2019. "The Value of Information in Technology Adoption," IZA Discussion Papers 12672, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Hanna Freudenreich & Sindu W. Kebede, 2022. "Experience of shocks, household wealth and expectation formation: Evidence from smallholder farmers in Kenya," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(5), pages 756-774, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technology Adoption; Commercial Farming; Randomized Controlled Trial; Uganda;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services

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