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Estimating elasticities of demand and supply for South African manufactured exports using a vector error correction model

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  • Alberto Behar
  • Lawrence Edwards

Abstract

Elasticities of demand and supply for South African manufactured exports are estimated using a vector error correction model in order to address simultaneity and non-stationarity issues. Demand is highly price-elastic, with elasticities ranging from -3 to -6. The price elasticity of supply is generally about 1, but some estimates are as low as 0.35. Competitors’ prices and world income are important determinants of demand, but domestic capacity utilization is not an important determinant of export supply. Many different data alternatives are sourced, constructed and estimated, showing the results can be sensitive to the choice of series.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford in its series CSAE Working Paper Series with number 2004-04.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2004-04

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Cited by:
  1. Rudy Rahmaddi & Masaru Ichihashi, 2011. "How Do Foreign and Domestic Demand Affect Exports Performance? An Econometric Investigation of Indonesia's Exports," IDEC DP2 Series 1-4, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC), revised Jan 2012.
  2. Hélène Maisonnave & Ramos Mabugu & Margaret Chitiga & Véronique Robichaud, 2013. "Analysing Job Creation Effects of Scaling Up Infrastructure Spending in South Africa," Cahiers de recherche 1310, CIRPEE.
  3. Mabugu, Ramos & Chitiga, Margaret, 2009. "Is increased agricultural protection beneficial for South Africa?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 256-265, January.
  4. Alberto Behar, 2005. "Does training benefit those who do not get any? Elasticities of complementarity and factor price in South Africa," Economics Series Working Papers 244, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  5. Edwards, Lawrence J & Garlick, Robert, 2008. "Trade flows and the exchange rate in South Africa," MPRA Paper 36666, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Lawrence Edwards & Robert Z. Lawrence, 2006. "South African Trade Policy Matters: Trade Performance and Trade Policy," NBER Working Papers 12760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Melitón Ramirez Mattos, 2005. "Econometric Model for Cement demand and supply in Bolivia," Econometrics 0508019, EconWPA.
  8. Margaret Chitiga & Ramos Mabugu & Hélène Maisonnave & Véronique Robichaud & Bernard Decaluwé, 2009. "The Impact of the International Economic Crisis in South Africa," Cahiers de recherche 0952, CIRPEE.
  9. Cagri Sarikaya, 2004. "Export Dynamics in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 4(2), pages 41-64.
  10. Chitiga, Margaret & Fofana, Ismael & Mabugu, Ramos, 2011. "A multiregion general equilibrium analysis of fiscal consolidation in South Africa:," IFPRI discussion papers 1110, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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