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Smuggling and supply response: coffee in Ethiopia

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  • Stefan Dercon
  • Lulseged Ayalew

Abstract

During the 1980s substantial smuggling of coffee has been taking place in Ethiopia. The recent devaluation has raised hopes that substantial quantities of coffee will flow back to the official channels. Data on the incentives to supply to the different channels is collated. A model of official supplies is formulated which nests an empirical test between the smuggling models by Bhagwati and Hansen (1973) and by Pitt (1981). The econometric results favour the latter, and show a small but significant effect of the premium in the black market and a positive total supply response, relative to the main competing crop, chat. The results imply that the increases in export eantings from the devaluation will be quite limited.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Dercon & Lulseged Ayalew, 1995. "Smuggling and supply response: coffee in Ethiopia," CSAE Working Paper Series 1995-05, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:1995-05
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    Cited by:

    1. Ana Mar�a Iba�ez Londo�o & Juan Carlos Mu�oz Mora & Philip Verwimp, 2013. "Abandoning Coffee under the Threat of Violence and the Presence of Illicit Crops. Evidence from Colombia," HiCN Working Papers 150, Households in Conflict Network.
    2. repec:dgr:rugcds:199909 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Seneshaw Tamru & Bart Minten & Johan Swinnen, 2021. "Trade, value chains, and rent distribution with foreign exchange controls: Coffee exports in Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(1), pages 81-95, January.
    4. Dercon, Stefan, 2006. "Economic reform, growth and the poor: Evidence from rural Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 1-24, October.

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