Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Evaluation of the Diachronic Performance of the OECD Macroeconomic Forecasts for Greece

Contents:

Author Info

  • Dikaios Tserkezos

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Crete, Greece)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    A variety of standard forecasting accuracy criteria and one suggestion are applied to evaluate the OECD's macroeconomic forecasts for Greece for the aggregate demand and output, the GDP implicit price deflator, the investment, the imports and the exports of goods and services. Every year and half-year the OECD provides projections for these variables published in the OECD Economic Outlook. Because these projections are used extensively by governmental and nongovernmental organizations, it is useful to examine their accuracy. Among some �traditional� forecasting performance criteria another forecasting criterion is suggested in order to take into account the diachronic adjustment process between the forecasts supplied by OECD and the actual data the last 27 years. According to our results, irrespective of how accurate are the OECD�s forecasts, there is certainly much room for further improvement. As predictors of direction the OECD's six-month ahead forecasts should be considered valuable; this cannot be said for forecasts which look ahead a year and 18 months.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://economics.soc.uoc.gr/wpa/docs/tserkezos_20090319.pdf
    File Function: First version
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Crete, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0902.

    as in new window
    Length: 20 pages
    Date of creation: 19 Mar 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:crt:wpaper:0902

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Gallos - Rethymno 74100
    Phone: +30 831 77405
    Fax: +30 831 77406
    Web page: http://economics.soc.uoc.gr/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: OECD Forecasts Accuracy; Greek Economy; Diachronic Adjustment Speed; Distributed Lags model; Monte Carlo Experiments.;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:crt:wpaper:0902. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kostis Pigounakis).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.