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The New Version of the Model MZE, Macroeconometric Model for the Eurozone

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Author Info

  • M. BARLET

    (Drees)

  • M.-É. CLERC

    (Insee)

  • M. GARNERO

    (Drees)

  • V. LAPÈGUE

    (Insee)

  • V. MARCUS

    (SGDD)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper presents the main improvements carried out to the macroeconometric model MZE since its creation in 2003. We have back-calculated the series over the period 1980-1995, in order to make the model more stable. To our knowledge, this paper is the first application of Kllians (1998) method to estimate coefficients and centered confidence intervals for an operational macroeconometric model. The new coefficients enable to get less inflationary responses to macroeconomic shocks than the previous version of MZE. The study is more nuanced and rigorous thanks to the confidence intervals around the main scenarios. It is thus possible to check the significance of the results at any horizon. At last, the new version of MZE enables to find conventional responses to international shocks, like the inflationary effect of a rise in oil prices or the delayed impact of a depreciation of the euro on the improvement of the trade balance.

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    File URL: http://www.insee.fr/fr/publications-et-services/docs_doc_travail/G2011-15.pdf
    File Function: Document de travail de la DESE numéro G2011-15
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE in its series Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE with number g2011-15.

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    Date of creation: 2011
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:crs:wpdeee:g2011-15

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    Related research

    Keywords: Macroeconometric modelling; Forecasting; Confidence interval; Bootstrap;

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    1. McAdam, Peter & Morgan, Julian, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism at the euro-area level: issues and results using structural macroeconomic models," Working Paper Series 0093, European Central Bank.
    2. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
    3. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1994. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1085, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Christoffel, Kai & Coenen, Günter & Warne, Anders, 2008. "The New Area-Wide Model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 0944, European Central Bank.
    5. Adjemian, S. & Cahn, C. & Devulder, A. & Maggiar, N., 2009. "Variantes en Univers Incertain," Working papers 236, Banque de France.
    6. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    7. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 0091, European Central Bank.
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