Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Simulating the impact of pension reforms on labour force participation for the 55+: a comparison of three models

Contents:

Author Info

  • M. BACHELET

    (Insee)

  • M. BEFFY

    (Insee)

  • D. BLANCHET

    (Insee)

Abstract

A specific attention is devoted to the 55+ age group when building global labour force projections regularly updated by Insee. This requires taking into account individual heterogeneity, because the impact of pension reforms on behavior is potentially very different across individuals. For instance, increasing to 62 the minimum age of eligibility, as decided in 2010, will be neutral for people who already planned to retire after this age. It will be constraining for other people, but the impact on global labour force will depend upon employment status before retirement: postponing pension claiming for individuals who have already left the labour market does not affect this labour force, at least as long as it does not change labour market behavior before retirement age. Simulating individual transitions to retirement raises however considerable problems, to which models only bring imperfect and uncertain answers. This argues in favor of scenarized projections based on alternative assumptions. We present here results based on three options offered by the Destinie 2 microsimulation model. Depending upon these assumptions, cumulated impacts of past reforms on labour force participation rates for the 60-64 age group range, in the long run, between 10 and 40%, but starting from no-reform trends that are themselves very different from one scenario to the next. On the whole, after reforms, the long run labour force participation rate for the 60-64 group would lie within the 40%-50% bracket. This corresponds to mean ages at pension claiming lying between 64 and 65 years, and to mean ages at exit from the labour force fluctuating between 61 and 63 years, depending upon possible retroactions on career paths before full retirement.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.insee.fr/fr/publications-et-services/docs_doc_travail/G2011-08.pdf
File Function: Document de travail de la DESE numéro G2011-08
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE in its series Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE with number g2011-08.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:crs:wpdeee:g2011-08

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 15 Boulevard Gabriel Peri 92244 Malakoff Cedex
Phone: 01 41 17 50 50
Email:
Web page: http://www.insee.fr
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: pension reform; age at retirement; microsimulation; labour force projection;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:crs:wpdeee:g2011-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (D3E).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.