Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Oil price and potential output growth in the long run

Contents:

Author Info

  • G. LALANNE

    (Insee)

  • E. POULIQUEN

    (Insee)

  • O. SIMON

    (Insee)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The goal of this paper is to gauge the impact of the expected oil price increase on the potential output growth of the French economy in the long run. This potential output exercise is conducted using CES (Constant Elasticity of Substitution) production functions featuring three factors: capital, labour and energy. Moreover, the sectoral composition of the economy is taken into account through a breaking down of the economy into four sectors (manufacturing industry, construction, market services, and agriculture). The model yields a potential output of growth of about 2 % per year in the absence of oil price variations. The various scenarios of oil price increases result in a shortage of growth between 0.1 and 0.6 % per year in the medium run with respect to the constant oil price scenario. The major part of this growth shortage channels through a negative impact on the manufacturing sector, which is highly energy-intensive and also the engine of technical progress.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.insee.fr/fr/publications-et-services/docs_doc_travail/G2009-09.pdf
    File Function: Document de travail de la DESE numéro G2009-09
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE in its series Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE with number g2009-09.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:crs:wpdeee:g2009-09

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 15 Boulevard Gabriel Peri 92244 Malakoff Cedex
    Phone: 01 41 17 50 50
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.insee.fr
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: Potential output growth; Unbalanced growth; Oil price;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Carone, Giuseppe & Denis, Cécile & Mc Morrow, Kieran & Mourre, Gilles & Röger, Werner, 2006. "Long-term labour productivity and GDP projections for the EU25 Member States : a production function framework," MPRA Paper 744, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Edwin van der Werf, 2007. "Production Functions for Climate Policy Modeling: An Empirical Analysis," Kiel Working Papers 1316, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    3. Ark, Bart van, 1995. "Sectoral growth accounting and structural change in postwar Europe," GGDC Research Memorandum 199523, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    4. Robert H. Rasche & John A. Tatom, 1977. "Energy resources and potential GNP," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jun, pages 10-24.
    5. Stefano Scarpetta & Andrea Bassanini & Dirk Pilat & Paul Schreyer, 2000. "Economic Growth in the OECD Area: Recent Trends at the Aggregate and Sectoral Level," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 248, OECD Publishing.
    6. Edenhofer, Ottmar & Bauer, Nico & Kriegler, Elmar, 2005. "The impact of technological change on climate protection and welfare: Insights from the model MIND," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2-3), pages 277-292, August.
    7. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," NBER Working Papers 14492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Alain Bernard & Marc Vielle, 2008. "GEMINI-E3, a general equilibrium model of international–national interactions between economy, energy and the environment," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 173-206, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:crs:wpdeee:g2009-09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (D3E).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.