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What is the impact of oil price changes on French growth?

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  • M. BARLET

    (Insee)

  • L. CRUSSON

    (Insee)

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    Abstract

    The two oil shocks of the 1970s reduced the GDP growth rate. Since that period, sudden oil price increases have been considered as a major source of economic slowdown. We estimate VAR models and Markov-Switching models to evaluate the impact of oil price increases on French growth. Our results indicate a breakdown in the relationship between oil prices and economic activity at the beginning of the 1980s. Over the period 1980-2006, our estimations show a slight negative effect of oil price increases only during low-growth phases. Our models also underlight a slowdown in the foreign demand following an oil price increase. The GDP growth rate is indirectly affected by this foreign demand decrease.

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    File URL: http://www.insee.fr/fr/publications-et-services/docs_doc_travail/G2007-04.pdf
    File Function: Document de travail de la DESE numéro G2007-04
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE in its series Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE with number g2007-04.

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    Date of creation: 2007
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    Handle: RePEc:crs:wpdeee:g2007-04

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    Related research

    Keywords: Oil shocks; GDP growth rate; breakpoints; VAR models; Markov-Switching models;

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