Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Individual responses to BTS and the Forecasting of Manufactured Production

Contents:

Author Info

  • O. BIAU

    (Insee)

  • H. ERKEL-ROUSSE

    (Insee)

  • N. FERRARI

    (Insee)

Abstract

In this paper, we compare the performances of balances of opinion with those of competing dis-aggregate indicators derived from the Mitchell, Smith and Weale (MSW) methodology as concerns the one-quarter forecasting of the manufactured production growth rate. The data used are the Business Tendency Survey in Industry carried out by INSEE and the French Quarterly Accounts. The dis-aggregate indicators are derived from the entrepreneurs individual responses to the survey questions relating to either past or expected production. They are of two kinds: the parametric indicators are based on ordered discrete-choice models at the firm level (polytomic logit models); the other indicators are derived from simpler non-parametric methodology. MSWs applications to British and German data suggest that their indicators perform better than a set of three competing aggregate indicators, but they do not obtain the same result on Portuguese and Swedish data. Based on a thorough out-of-sample analysis, our application to French data leads to the conclusion that the forecast performances of the MSW are less good or, at best, equivalent to those of the balances of opinion, depending on the models used.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.insee.fr/en/publications-et-services/docs_doc_travail/G2005-12.pdf
File Function: Document de travail de la DESE numéro G2005-12
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE in its series Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE with number g2005-12.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:crs:wpdeee:g2005-12

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 15 Boulevard Gabriel Peri 92244 Malakoff Cedex
Phone: 01 41 17 50 50
Email:
Web page: http://www.insee.fr
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Business Tendency Surveys; quantification; balance of opinion; indicators; short-term forecasting; manufactured production;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:crs:wpdeee:g2005-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (D3E).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.