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Low Income Dynamics: Analyzing poverty exits and entries

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  • J.-P. ZOYEM

    (Insee)

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    Abstract

    Since 1994, the European Community Household Panel provides information on changes in the French households income and on household situation vis-à-vis the labour market month after month. Using the five available waves, this paper investigates the impact of some family events and changes in the job market situation on poverty exits and entries. The analysis focuses on working age households. Poor households are defined as those with a living standard lower than 60% of the median equivalent income. Five years poverty incidence is found to be 31%, that is twice as larger as one year incidence. One third of poor households exit from poverty in the year after while 6% of non-poor fall into. Labour income has a major contribution to changes in living standard level. An econometric estimation of poverty flows leads to the following results: Changes in employment situations have a major impact on poverty entries and exits. Probability of poverty exit increases with the number of working months while the risk of entering poverty increases when the number of working months decreases. For couples, child births increase the risk of poverty entry, but do not modify the probability of poverty exit. After a child departure the household is more likely to exit poverty, but the risk of poverty entry is not significantly affected. A high education level protects against poverty entry, but does not increase the chances of living poverty.

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    File URL: http://www.insee.fr/fr/publications-et-services/docs_doc_travail/G2002-11.pdf
    File Function: Document de travail de la DESE numéro G2002-11
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE in its series Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE with number g2002-11.

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    Date of creation: 2002
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    Handle: RePEc:crs:wpdeee:g2002-11

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    Related research

    Keywords: Low Income Dynamics; Poverty; Probit Model; Panel;

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    References

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    1. Mary Jo Bane & David T. Ellwood, 1986. "Slipping into and out of Poverty: The Dynamics of Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-23.
    2. Ann Huff Stevens, 1999. "Climbing out of Poverty, Falling Back in: Measuring the Persistence of Poverty Over Multiple Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(3), pages 557-588.
    3. Catherine Chambaz & Eric Maurin, 1996. "La persistance dans la pauvreté et son évolution," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 122(1), pages 133-152.
    4. Jean-Paul Zoyem & Pascale Breuil-Genier & Sophie Ponthieux, 2001. "Profils sur le marché du travail et caractéristiques familiales des actifs pauvres," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 349(1), pages 99-124.
    5. Pablo Antolín & Thai-Thanh Dang & Howard Oxley, 1999. "Poverty Dynamics in Four OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 212, OECD Publishing.
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