Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Microsimulation of demographic behaviours using 2 alternative data sources

Contents:

Author Info

  • I. ROBERT-BOBÉE

    (Insee)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    A microsimulation of demographic behaviours using the 1997 Insee Survey about Young People and Job Histories (Robert-Bobée 2001) leads to the following results: if demographic behaviours remain the same as the ones observed in 1995-1996, completed fertility may decrease to less than 2 children per woman born around 1970 and remain constant about 1.9 children per woman born after 1975. These simulations rely on several assumptions which may prove inadequate in the future. In particular, we assume that future behaviours will remain identical to the ones observed in 1995-1996, when fertility was quite low. Some other uncertainties stem from the size of the sample. For instance, estimated probabilities for second unions after a long time spent without a partner are difficult to estimate: only people from 19 to 45 were interviewed, and those who have been living alone for a long time are not numerous. In this paper, we investigate the robustness of the simulation using another data source for estimating behaviours. The new data base is the 1999 Insee Survey on Family Histories. Behaviours are estimated in 1996-1998, years of higher fertility. Results are found to be very consistent with the previous ones.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.insee.fr/fr/publications-et-services/docs_doc_travail/G2002-10.pdf
    File Function: Document de travail de la DESE numéro G2002-10
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE in its series Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE with number g2002-10.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:crs:wpdeee:g2002-10

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 15 Boulevard Gabriel Peri 92244 Malakoff Cedex
    Phone: 01 41 17 50 50
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.insee.fr
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: microsimulation; demographic trends; fertility;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:crs:wpdeee:g2002-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (D3E).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.