An Empirical Investigation in Credit Spread Indices
AbstractWe study the dynamics of the spread between U.S. corporate and Treasury bonds. We focus on Aaa and Baa corporate yield indices and estimate nonparametrically the dynamics of the spreads assuming that they follow a univariate diffusion process. Using techniques developed for interest rate processes we try to infer from the data what acceptable process can be used to model aggregate credit spreads for option pricing or risk management purposes. We find that there is significant evidence of mean reversion especially for higher rated spreads and that the volatility of Aaa spreads exhibit a U-shape while the volatility of Baa spreads is monotonically increasing in the level of spreads. Based on these observations and on the evidence of jumps in the series, we propose a new model for credit spread indices (an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck with jumps) and estimate it by maximum likelihood.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique in its series Working Papers with number 2000-59.
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Olivier Scaillet & Olivier Renault & Jean-Luc Prigent, 2000. "An Empirical Investigation in Credit Spread Indices," FMG Discussion Papers dp363, Financial Markets Group.
- Prigent, J.-L. & Renault, O. & Scaillet, O., 2000. "An Empirical Investigation in Credit Spread Indices," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2000028, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
- G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
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- Carl Chiarella & Erik Schl?gl & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios, 2004.
"A Markovian Defaultable Term Structure Model with State Dependent Volatilities,"
Research Paper Series
135, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Carl Chiarella & Christina Nikitopoulos Sklibosios & Erik Schlögl, 2007. "A Markovian Defaultable Term Structure Model With State Dependent Volatilities," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 155-202.
- Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios, 2005. "A Class of Markovian Models for the Term Structure of Interest Rates Under Jump-Diffusions," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 6, March.
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