Validating Longitudinal Earnings in Dynamic Microsimulation Models: The Role of Outliers
AbstractRapid growth in the earnings of the highest earners over the past two and a half decades has contributed to strains on Social Security’s finances and made projecting lifetime earnings on a year-by-year basis – already a complicated technical problem – even more challenging. This project uses various descriptive techniques and high-quality administrative earnings data matched to household surveys to explore related questions about the changing wage distribution. We first describe the characteristics of high earners, both at a point in time and over longer periods (from 1983 through 2010). We then evaluate how well SSA’s MINT7 dynamic microsimulation model projects inequality in the earnings distribution and the long-term characteristics of earnings paths.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Center for Retirement Research in its series Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College with number wp2013-19.
Length: 89 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision:
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-09-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-LAB-2013-09-28 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-LMA-2013-09-28 (Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, & Wages)
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