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Projecting Immigration: A Survey of the Current State of Practice and Theory

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Author Info
Neil Howe () (Center for Strategic and International Studies)
Richard Jackson () (Center for Strategic and International Studies)
Abstract

Assumptions about long-term trends in international migration are an increasingly important component of the demographic projection module. Yet most official immigration projections both in the United States and abroad rely on ad-hoc assumptions based on little theory and virtually no definable methodology. The purpose of this paper is twofold: to assess where projection-making agencies stand in their practice of immigration projection and to explore how theoretical insights about immigration may help them improve their practice. The first section describes the current projection methods of leading national and international agencies, from the U.S. Census Bureau and Social Security Administration to the United Nations and the World Bank. The second section scans the wide and varied array of "theoretical frameworks" that attempt to explain international migration flows. The paper identifies six important ones: the policy, the neoclassical, the world systems, the new economics, the social networks, and the dual labor market frameworks. We conclude that much progress might be achievable if the explanatory richness of immigration theory could somehow be consolidated and integrated into a useable projection method. The third section briefly outlines some first steps to start harnessing theory and improving practice.

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Paper provided by Center for Retirement Research in its series Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College with number 2004-32.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2004
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Handle: RePEc:crr:crrwps:2004-32

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Related research
Keywords: migration; immigration; projection;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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  7. Brian C. O'Neill & Deborah Balk & Melanie Brickman & Markos Ezra, 2001. "A Guide to Global Population Projections," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 4(8), pages 203-288, June. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Barry Chiswick, 1999. "Are Immigrants Favorably Self-Selected?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 181-185, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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