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The Rise in Disability Recipiency and the Decline in Unemployment

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Author Info
David H. Autor (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Mark G. Duggan (University of Chicago)

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Abstract

Between 1984 and 2000, the share of non-elderly adults receiving benefits from the Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) programs rose from 3.1 to 5.3 percent. We trace this growth to reduced screening stringency and, due to the interaction between growing wage inequality and a progressive benefits formula, a rising earnings replacement rate. We explore the implications of these changes for the level of labor force participation among the less skilled and their employment responses to adverse employment shocks. Following program liberalization in 1984, DI application and recipiency rates became two to three times as responsive to plausibly exogenous labor demand shocks. Contemporaneously, male and female high school dropouts became increasingly likely to exit the labor force rather than enter unemployment in the event of an adverse shock. The liberalization of the disability program appears to explain both facts. Accounting for the role of disability in inducing labor force exit among the low-skilled unemployed, we calculate that the U.S. unemployment rate would be two-thirds of a percentage point higher at present were it not for the liberalized disability system.

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Paper provided by Center for Retirement Research in its series Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College with number 2002-07.

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Length: 61 pages
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2002
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Handle: RePEc:crr:crrwps:2002-07

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  4. Beaudry, Paul & DiNardo, John, 1991. "The Effect of Implicit Contracts on the Movement of Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Micro Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 665-88, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Jaeger, David A, 1997. "Reconciling the Old and New Census Bureau Education Questions: Recommendations for Researchers," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 300-309, July.
  7. Gruber, Jonathan & Kubik, Jeffrey D., 1997. "Disability insurance rejection rates and the labor supply of older workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 1-23, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Juhn, Chinhui, 1992. "Decline of Male Labor Market Participation: The Role of Declining Market Opportunities," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(1), pages 79-121, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Bruce Western & Becky Pettit, 2000. "Incarceration and racial inequality in men's employment," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, ILR School, Cornell University, vol. 54(1), pages 3-16, October.
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  17. Jonathan Gruber & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 1994. "Disability Insurance Rejection Rates and the Labor Supply of Older Workers," NBER Working Papers 4941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Bound, John, 1989. "The Health and Earnings of Rejected Disability Insurance Applicants," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 482-503, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. John Bound & Timothy Waidmann, 2000. "Accounting for Recent Declines in Employment Rates among the Working-Aged Disabled," NBER Working Papers 7975, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Harry J. Holzer & Paul Offner, 2001. "Trends in Employment Outcomes of Young Black Men, 1979-2000," JCPR Working Papers 245, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sergi Jiménez-Martín & José M. Labeaga & Cristina Vilaplana Prieto, 2005. "A sequential model for older workers’ labor transitions after a health shock," Economics Working Papers 898, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Wouter Vermeulen, 2006. "Regional disparities in a small country? An analysis of regional unemployment and participation differentials in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2003," CPB Documents 113, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Roger Wilkins, 2003. "Labour Market Outcomes and Welfare Dependence of Persons with Disabilities in Australia," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n02, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  5. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," NBER Working Papers 8940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Ron Smith & Gylfi Zoega, 2004. "Global Shocks and Unemployment Adjustment," DEGIT Conference Papers c009_003, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Sergi Jiménez-Martín & José M. Labeaga & Cristina Vilaplana Prieto, 2006. "A sequential model of older workers' labor force transitions after a health shock," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(9), pages 1033-1054. [Downloadable!]
  8. Mikhail Golosov & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2005. "Designing Optimal Disability Insurance: A Case for Asset Testing," Levine's Bibliography 784828000000000450, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Annemiek van VUren & Daniël van Vuuren, 2005. "Financial incentives in disability insurance in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Papers 45, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Amitabh Chandra, 2003. "Is the Convergence of the Racial Wage Gap Illusory?," NBER Working Papers 9476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Mary C. Daly & Andrew J. Houtenville, 2002. "Employment declines among people with disabilities: population movements, isolated experience, or broad policy concern?," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  12. Alan B. Krueger & Bruce D. Meyer, 2002. "Labor Supply Effects of Social Insurance," NBER Working Papers 9014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Mikhail Golosov & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2003. "Designing optimal disability insurance," Working Papers 628, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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