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Crescita e vincolo esterno: quali strategie per promuovere stabilità macroeconomica, competitività e investimenti

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Author Info
Fabrizio Onida (Università Bocconi,)

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Abstract

A high share of foreign currency denomination of domestic public debt in rules out any recourse to inflation tax as an effective adjustment device. Anti- inflation policies based upon hard peg regimes may remove the exchange rate risk in the short run but - as pointed out by Argentina’s currency board crisis at the beginning of the current decade - cannot avoid the default risk, mirrored in the spread between yields on domestic bonds and benchmark bonds such as US Treasury Bills. Alternatively, for any degree of fiscal discipline, adjustable peg or freely floating exchange rate regimes may be successful only if the passthrough from a depreciating exchange to domestic prices and wages is kept under control. Temporary and well targeted controls on short-term external capital movements, such as those successfully managed by Chile and Malaysia, may help to overcome the most acute phase of crisis adjustment. Debt- for-equity swaps and their variants such as debt- for-development or debt- for-nature swaps, involving both public and private lenders, may give an effective although quite limited support to adjustment policies in over- indebted developing countries. strategies and oligopolistic rivalry.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESPRI, Centre for Research on Innovation and Internationalisation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy in its series CESPRI Working Papers with number 157.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2004
Date of revision: Jul 2004
Handle: RePEc:cri:cespri:wp157

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Related research
Keywords: Growth; External and Internal Balance; Latin America;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1999. "Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 6925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Ffrench-Davis, Ricardo, 1990. "Debt-Equity Swaps in Chile," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 109-26, March.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 1999. "Capital Flow Reversals,the Exchange Rate Debate,and Dollarization," MPRA Paper 8951, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2000. "Macroeconomic Volatility in Latin America: A View and Three Case Studies," NBER Working Papers 7782, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Guillermo Calvo & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries," NBER Working Papers 9808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "How Effective are Capital Controls?," NBER Working Papers 7413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Why Should Emerging Economies Give up National Currencies: A Case for 'Institutions Substitution'," NBER Working Papers 8950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Sebastian Edwards, 1992. "Capital Flows, Foreign Direct Investment, and Debt-Equity Swaps in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 3497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Morris Goldstein, 2003. "Debt Sustainability, Brazil, and the IMF," Peterson Institute Working Paper Series WP03-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Eduardo Borensztein & Paolo Mauro & Andrew Berg, 2002. "An Evaluation of Monetary Regime Options for Latin America," IMF Working Papers 02/211, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Capital Flows, Real Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: Some Latin American Experiences," NBER Working Papers 6800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Jose De Gregorio & Sebastian Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdes, 2000. "Controls on Capital Inflows: Do they Work?," NBER Working Papers 7645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Eduardo Borensztein & Andrew Berg, 2000. "The Pros and Cons of Full Dollarization," IMF Working Papers 00/50, International Monetary Fund.
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