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A Neoclassical and Econometric analysis of the Timing and Spacing of Births in Canada from 1950 to 1990

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Author Info
Philip Merrigan () (Université du Québec à Montréal)
Yvan St-Pierre (University of Western Ontario)

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Abstract

Ce texte présente les estimations d'un modèle néoclassique de forme réduite de la détermination des naissances canadiennes depuis 1950. La technique économétrique utilisée est adaptée au caractère dynamique du phénomène de la fécondité en plus d'intégrer des facettes originales par rapport aux études traditionnelles dans ce domaine. Nous trouvons considérablement de support empirique au modèle néoclassique. De plus, nous trouvons que la modélisation de facteurs non-observables d'hétérogénéité est très importante dans la caractérisation du phénomène des naissances au Canada. Cependant, notre modèle révèle des lacunes du point de vue d'une explication globale des chutes du taux de fécondité des années récentes.

This paper estimates a reduced form neoclassical model of Canadian fertility dynamics using an econometric technique that integrates several features not usually found in the demographic and economic literature. We find considerable support for the neoclassical model. We also find that correlated unobservables and parity stopping effects play an important role in Canadian fertility dynamics. However, we fail to totally characterize the important drop in the fertility rate that took place in the sixties and seventies.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Université du Québec à Montréal, Département des sciences économiques in its series Cahiers de recherche du Département des sciences économiques, UQAM with number 9501.

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Date of creation: Jan 1995
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Handle: RePEc:cre:uqamwp:9501

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  1. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt & Michèle Tertilt, 2008. "Fertility Theories: Can They Explain the Negative Fertility-Income Relationship?," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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