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Les effets des impôts et des allocations familiales sur les comportements de fécondité et de travail des Canadiennes: résultats d'un modèle de choix discrets

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Nous utilisons un modèle logistique de choix discrets (conditonnel et séquentiel) pour évaluer la sensibilité des comportements des Canadiennes, mariées ou vivant en union consensuelle, à des changements dans les flux attendus de revenu faisant suite à des modifications de la politique fiscale liée à la présence d'enfant(s) à charge et de la politique des allocations familiales. On suppose que les femmes (couples) font face à trois types de décisions séquentielles: la décision de fécondité, la décision quant au nombre d'enfants et la décision de travailler. Ce processus hiérarchique de prise de décision définit huit options où chacune est caractérisée par sa valeur. Le modèle est estimé, à l'aide de micro-données provenant de 9 coupes transversales et portant sur les années 1975 à 1987, par une procédure de maximum de vraisemblance à information complète, en tenant compte du problème d'autosélection des échantillons. En prenant en considération les estimations empiriques permettant de simuler les effets de changements apportés aux politiques fiscales et de transferts en faveur des familles avec des enfants à charge sur la fécondité et l'ampleur des déboursés pour les deux paliers de gouvernement au Canada. We use a nested polychotomous discrete choice model to estimate the responsiveness of the behaviour of "married" women (couples) in Canada to variations in the expected flow of revenue resulting from changes in the parameters of the personal income tax and in the level of public monetary transfers conditional on the number of children. We suppose that married women or living common law, are faced with three types of sequential decisons: the fertility decision, the decision relative to the number of children to have and the decision concerning labour force participation. The hierarchical process of decision defines eight situations that have an option value. The model is estimated with micro-data from 9 repeated cross-sections for the years 1975 to 1987 with a full information maximum likehood method. Our estimation of female wage equations conditional on the number of children takes into account the problem of sample selectivity. Finally this empirical setting is used to simulate the effects of changes made to the fiscal exemptions in favor of families with dependent children and to family allowances on fertility, women labour force participation and the importance of net spending costs for the two levels of government.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal in its series Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers with number 10.

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Length: 63 pages
Date of creation: Mar 1993
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published, Population, 54(2), pages 415-456, 1994
Handle: RePEc:cre:crefwp:10

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Keywords: Fertility discrete choice model; family allowances;

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Cited by:
  1. Laroque, Guy & Salanié, Bernard, 2005. "Does Fertility Respond to Financial Incentives?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5007, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Guy Laroque & Bernard Salanié, 2003. "Fertility and Financial Incentives in France," Working Papers 2003-32, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.

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