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ECB Reaction Functions and the Crisis of 2008

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  • Gerlach, Stefan
  • Lewis, John

Abstract

We study ECB’s interest rate setting in 1999-2010 using a reaction function in which forecasts of future economic growth and inflation enter as regressors. Allowing for a gradual switch between two reaction functions, we detect a shift after Lehman Brothers failed in September 2008 when the pre-crisis reaction function first indicates that interest rates may become constrained by the zero lower bound. Furthermore, the interest rate cuts in late 2008 were more aggressive than forecast by the pre-crisis reaction function. These findings are compatible with the literature on optimal monetary policy in the presence of a zero lower bound.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8472.

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Date of creation: Jul 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8472

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Keywords: ECB; reaction functions; smooth transition; zero lower bound;

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References

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  1. Coenen, Günter & Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero," Working Paper Series 0231, European Central Bank.
  2. Gunter Coenen & Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland, 2001. "Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1877-1905, October.
  4. Janko Gorter & Fauve Stolwijk & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2010. "ECB Policy Making and the Financial Crisis," DNB Working Papers 272, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  5. Volker Wieland (Goethe University Frankfurt) & Günter Coenen (European Central Bank), 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 65, Society for Computational Economics.
  6. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2007. "Taylor Rules And Interest Rate Smoothing In The Euro Area," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(1), pages 1-16, 01.
  7. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin, 2006. "Estimating Central Banks' preferences from a time-varying empirical reaction function," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1951-1974, November.
  8. Coenen, Guenter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The Zero-Interest-Rate and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary Policy in Japan," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  9. Paolo Surico, 2003. "Asymmetric Reaction Functions for the Euro Area," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 44-57.
  10. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Efficient Monetary Policy Design near Price Stability," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 327-365, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Dirk Bleich & Ralf Fendel & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2013. "Monetary Policy and Stock Market Volatility," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 1669-1680.
  2. Jinill Kim & Seth Pruitt, 2013. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules When Nominal Interest Rates Are Stuck at Zero," CAMA Working Papers 2013-53, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Sznajderska, Anna, 2014. "Asymmetric effects in the Polish monetary policy rule," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 547-556.

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