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Credit Channels in a Liquidity Trap

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  • Mertens, Karel
  • Ravn, Morten O

Abstract

We study liquidity trap dynamics driven by nonfundamental shifts in expectations in a model with nominal rigidities, housing, credit frictions and a Taylor rule. Highly leveraged borrowing through nominal debt backed by real estate collateral greatly magnifies the decline in output and house prices during a liquidity trap recession. The amplification mechanism is much smaller when there is no feedback from house prices to the borrowing constraint, when debt is real rather nominal, and when leverage is small. We argue that the liquidity trap dynamics share some important features with the recent US recession and that high levels of leverage may have made the economy sensitive to expectations induced liquidity traps.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8322.

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Date of creation: Apr 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8322

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Related research

Keywords: collateral constraint; expectations; housing; leverage; liquidity trap;

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References

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  1. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2011. "Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2150-2166.
  2. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464, November.
  3. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2011. "Leverage and the Financial Accelerator in a Liquidity Trap," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 413-16, May.
  4. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
  5. Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2009. "Conventional and unconventional monetary policy," Staff Reports 404, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2010. "When is the government spending multiplier large?," CQER Working Paper 2010-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  7. Hanushek, Eric A & Quigley, John M, 1980. "What Is the Price Elasticity of Housing Demand?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(3), pages 449-54, August.
  8. Mertens, Karel & Ravn, Morten O., 2010. "Fiscal Policy in an Expectations Driven Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 7931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Cited by:
  1. Brendon, Charles & Paustian, Matthias & Yates, Tony, 2013. "The pitfalls of speed-limit interest rate rules at the zero lower bound," Bank of England working papers 473, Bank of England.
  2. Karel Mertens & Morten Ravn, 2011. "The Research Agenda: Karel Mertens and Morten Ravn on Fiscal Policy, Anticipation Effects, Expectations and Crisis," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), April.

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