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A New Index of Currency Mismatch and Systemic Risk

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  • Rancière, Romain
  • Tornell, Aaron
  • Vamvakidis, Athanasios

Abstract

This paper constructs a new measure of currency mismatch in the banking sector that controls for bank lending to unhedged borrowers. This measure explicitly takes into account the indirect exchange rate risk that banks undertake when they lend to borrowers that will not be able to repay in the event of a sharp depreciation. Such systemic risk taking is not captured by indicators that are based only on banks’ balance sheet data. The new measure is constructed for 10 emerging European economies and for a broader sample that includes 19 additional emerging economies, for the period 1998-2008. Comparisons with previous currency mismatch measures that do not adjust for unhedged foreign currency borrowing illustrate the advantages of the new approach. In particular, the new measure flagged the indirect currency mismatch vulnerabilities that were building up in a number of emerging economies before the recent global crisis. Measuring currency mismatch more accurately can help country authorities in their efforts to address vulnerabilities at the right time, avoiding hurting growth prospects.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8250.

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Date of creation: Feb 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8250

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Keywords: Currency Mismatch; Emerging Economies; Financial Crises; Systemic Risk;

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References

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  1. Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2005. "Systemic Crises and Growth," NBER Working Papers 11076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Morris Goldstein & Philip Turner, 2004. "Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 373.
  3. Carlos O. Arteta, 2002. "Exchange rate regimes and financial dollarization: does flexibility reduce bank currency mismatches?," International Finance Discussion Papers 738, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2010. "Currency mismatch, systemic risk and growth in emerging Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 25, pages 597-658, October.
  5. Carlos O. Arteta, 2003. "Are financially dollarized countries more prone to costly crises?," International Finance Discussion Papers 763, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2007. "Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance, and the Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why It Matters," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 121-170 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Josifidis, Kosta & Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Gimet, Céline & Pucar, Emilija Beker, 2014. "Macroeconomic policy responses to financial crises in emerging European economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 577-591.
  2. Livia Chitu, 2013. "Was Unofficial Dollarisation/Euroisation an Amplifier of the ‘Great Recession’ of 2007–2009 in Emerging Economies?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(2), pages 233-265, June.

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