Are Central Banks' Projections Meaningful?
AbstractCentral banks' projections--i.e. forecasts conditional on a given interest rate path-- are often criticized on the grounds that their underlying policy assumptions are inconsistent with the existence of a unique equilibrium in many forward-looking models. Here I describe three alternative approaches to constructing projections that are not subject to the above criticism, using two different versions of New Keynesian model as reference frameworks. Most importantly, I show how the three approaches generate different projections for inflation and output, even though they imply an identical path for the interest rate. The latter result calls into question the meaning and usefulness of such projections.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8027.
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
Other versions of this item:
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-10-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-10-09 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2010-10-09 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2010-10-09 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2010-10-09 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1998.
"The perils of Taylor Rules,"
Departmental Working Papers
199831, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 1998. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Working Papers 98-37, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 1999. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 2314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2003.
"Performance of Inflation Targeting Based on Constant Interest Rate Projections,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4126, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2005. "Performance of inflation targeting based on constant interest rate projections," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1867-1892, November.
- Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Performance of Inflation Targeting Based on constant Interest Rate Projections," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 130, Society for Computational Economics.
- Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2004. " Performance of Inflation Targeting Based on Constant Interest Rate Projections," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0406, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
- Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2003. "Performance of Inflation Targeting Based On Constant Interest Rate Projections," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/39, Center for Financial Studies.
- Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Performance of Inflation Targeting Based On Constant Interest Rate Projections," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/15, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
- Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002.
"Modest Policy Interventions,"
NBER Working Papers
9192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Modest policy interventions," Working Paper 2002-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," Working Paper 2003-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 1999. "Modest policy interventions," Working Paper 99-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007.
"Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
- Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles : a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Working Paper Research 109, National Bank of Belgium.
- Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE approach," Working Paper Series 722, European Central Bank.
- Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002.
"Learning about monetary policy rules,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
- Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1996.
"Inflation targeting in a St. Louis model of the 21st century,"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 83-107.
- Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1996. "Inflation Targeting in a St. Louis Model of the 21st Century," NBER Working Papers 5507, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
- Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2005. "Bayesian New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS) Models: Modern Tools for Central Banks," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 422-433, 04/05.
- Rochelle M. Edge & Refet S. Gurkaynak, 2011. "How useful are estimated DSGE model forecasts?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.