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Terrorism Networks and Trade: Does the Neighbor Hurt?

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  • Verdier, Thierry
  • De Sousa, José
  • Mirza, Daniel

Abstract

In this paper, we study the impact of transnational terrorism diffusion on security and trade. We set up a simple theoretical model predicting that the closer a country is to a source of terrorism, the higher the negative spillovers on its trade. The idea is that security measures, which impede trade, are directed both against the source country of terror and its neighbor countries where terrorism may diffuse. In contrast, we demonstrate that countries located far rom terror could benefit from an increase in security by trading more. Taken to the test, we empirically document these predictions. We find (1) a direct negative impact of transnational terrorism on trade; (2) an indirect negative impact emanating from terrorism of neighbor countries; and (3) that trade is increasing with remoteness to terror. These results are robust to various definitions of the neighboring relationships among countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Verdier, Thierry & De Sousa, José & Mirza, Daniel, 2010. "Terrorism Networks and Trade: Does the Neighbor Hurt?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7946, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7946
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    1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
    2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    3. Daniel Mirza & Thierry Verdier, 2014. "Are Lives a Substitute for Livelihoods? Terrorism, Security, and US Bilateral Imports," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 58(6), pages 943-975, September.
    4. James E. Anderson & Yoto V. Yotov, 2010. "The Changing Incidence of Geography," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2157-2186, December.
    5. Anne-Célia Disdier & Keith Head, 2008. "The Puzzling Persistence of the Distance Effect on Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 37-48, February.
    6. James E. Anderson & Douglas Marcouiller, 2002. "Insecurity And The Pattern Of Trade: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 342-352, May.
    7. Anderson, James E. & Marcouiller, S.J. Douglas, 1997. "Trade and Security, I: Anarchy," Working Paper Series 477, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    8. S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess, 2006. "How Much Does Violence Tax Trade?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 599-612, November.
    9. Mirza, Daniel & Verdier, Thierry, 2008. "International trade, security and transnational terrorism: Theory and a survey of empirics," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 179-194, June.
    10. Sandler, Todd & Tschirhart, John T. & Cauley, Jon, 1983. "A Theoretical Analysis of Transnational Terrorism," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 36-54, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nathalie Colombier & David Masclet & Daniel Mirza & Claude Montmarquette, 2011. "Global Security Policies against Terrorism and the Free Riding Problem: An Experimental Approach," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 13(5), pages 755-790, October.
    2. Qureshi, Mahvash Saeed, 2013. "Trade and thy neighbor's war," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 178-195.
    3. Randall K. Filer & Dragana Stanišić, 2016. "The Effect of Terrorist Incidents on Capital Flows," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 502-513, May.
    4. Peter Egger & Martin Gassebner, 2015. "International terrorism as a trade impediment?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 42-62.
    5. Pham, Cong S. & Doucouliagos, Chris, 2017. "An Injury to One Is an Injury to All: Terrorism's Spillover Effects on Bilateral Trade," IZA Discussion Papers 10859, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Security; Terrorism; Trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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