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Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy: Permanent and Transitory Shocks

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  • Strawczynski, Michel
  • Zeira, Joseph

Abstract

This paper examines the optimal reaction of fiscal policy to permanent and transitory shocks to output in a model of tax and public consumption smoothing. The model predicts that optimal reaction of public expenditures and deficits to transitory shocks should be countercyclical, while optimal reaction to permanent shocks should be a-cyclical. Using the Blanchard and Quah (1989) methodology for identifying permanent and transitory shocks, we test these predictions for a sample of 22 OECD countries over the years 1963-2006. We find that both expenditures and deficits are countercyclical to transitory shocks, mainly through public transfers and mainly in recessions. We find that government investment is pro-cyclical with respect to permanent shocks, but total expenditures are not.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7271.

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Date of creation: Apr 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7271

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Keywords: Business Cycles; Fiscal Policy; Permanent and Transitory Shocks;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Balazs Egert, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Reaction to the Cycle in the OECD: Pro- or Counter-Cyclical?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3777, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2009. "Common fluctuations in OECD budget balances," Working Papers 2009-055, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  3. Michel Strawczynski & Joseph Zeira, 2011. "Procyclicality of Fiscal Policy in Emerging Countries: the Cycle is the Trend," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 624, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Francisco de Castro & Francisco Martí & Antonio Montesinos & Javier J. Pérez & A. Jesús Sánchez-Fuentes, 2014. "Fiscal policies in Spain: Main stylises facts revisited," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1408, Banco de Espa�a.

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