Finance and Growth: When Does Credit Really Matter?
AbstractThe paper provides a simple theory and empirical evidence on the asymmetric effect of credit markets on output decline and output growth. When credit markets are underdeveloped and enterprise activity is financed outside the banking sector, exogenous shocks may induce a break-up of both credit and production chains, leading to sudden and sharp collapses in output. The development of a banking sector can reduce the probability of such collapses. Using industry-level data across a large cross-section of countries, the empirical analysis suggests that credit markets play a more important role in softening output declines than in fostering growth or recovery. These results suggest that credit markets are one of the main suspects for explaining why the magnitude of output declines tends to be larger in emerging markets than in advanced market economies.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6885.
Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision:
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- O43 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-07-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2008-07-05 (Banking)
- NEP-DEV-2008-07-05 (Development)
- NEP-FDG-2008-07-05 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-MAC-2008-07-05 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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