Israel 1983: A Bout of Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic
AbstractFrom 1970 to 1985, Israel experienced high inflation. It rose in three jumps to new plateaus and eventually exceeded 400% per annum. This paper claims that anticipated monetary and fiscal effects of a massive government bailout of owners of fallen bank shares caused the last big jump in inflation that occurred in October 1983. Bank shares had just collapsed after a scandal in which it was revealed that banks had long manipulated their share prices. The government promised to reimburse innocent owners for the diminished value of their bank shares, but only after four or five years. The public believed that promise and public debt therefore implicitly increased by a large amount. That implied future monetary expansions. Because that was foreseen, inflation immediately rose as predicted by the unpleasant monetarist arithmetic of Sargent and Wallace (1981).
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6792.
Date of creation: Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
Other versions of this item:
- Thomas Sargent & Joseph Zeira, 2011. "Israel 1983: A bout of unpleasant monetarist arithmetic?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(3), pages 419-431, July.
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
- H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-04-29 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-04-29 (Central Banking)
- NEP-HIS-2008-04-29 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
- NEP-MAC-2008-04-29 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2008-04-29 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bental, B. & Eckstein, Z., 1988.
"The Dynamics Of Inflation With Constant Deficit Under Expected Regime Change,"
35-88, Tel Aviv.
- Bental, Benjamin & Eckstein, Zvi, 1990. "The Dynamics of Inflation with Constant Deficit under Expected Regime Change," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1245-60, December.
- Zeira, Joseph, 1989. "Inflationary inertia in a wage-price spiral model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1665-1683, October.
- Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2009.
"The Conquest of South American Inflation,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(2), pages 211-256, 04.
- Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "The Conquest of South American Inflation," NBER Working Papers 12606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "The conquest of South American inflation," Working Paper 2006-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Sussman, Oren, 1992. "Financial Liberalization: The Israeli Experience," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 387-402, July.
- Drazen, Allan & Helpman, Elhanan, 1987. "Stabilization with Exchange Rate Management," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 835-55, November.
- Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
- Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2010. "The future of public debt: prospects and implications," BIS Working Papers 300, Bank for International Settlements.
- יוסף זעירא in Wikipedia Hebrew ne '')
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.