Why so Glum? The Meese-Rogoff Methodology Meets the Stock Market
AbstractThis paper applies the Meese-Rogoff (1983a) methodology to the stock market. We compare the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of various time-series and fundamentals-based models of aggregate stock prices. We stick as close as possible to the original Meese-Rogoff sample and methodology. Just as Meese and Rogoff found for the case of exchange rates, we find that a random walk model of stock prices performs as well as any estimated model at one to twelve month horizons, even though we base forecasts on actual future fundamentals of dividends and earnings. Using this metric and for this sample period, aggregate stock prices seem to be as difficult to model empirically as exchange rates.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6714.
Date of creation: Feb 2008
Date of revision:
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-04-12 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-04-12 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2008-04-12 (Forecasting)
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- Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "The Monetary Model Strikes Back," IMF Working Papers 08/73, International Monetary Fund.
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