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A Test of Endogenous Trade Bloc Formation Theory on EU Data

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Author Info
Baldwin, Richard
Rieder, Roland

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Abstract

This paper empirically confronts one explanation of spreading regionalism with the European experience. The domino theory asserts that forming a preferential trade area, or deepening an existing one, produces trade diversion that generates new political-economy forces in third nations as third-nation exporters seek to redress the new discrimination and profit from newly deepened preferences. The pressure increases with the bloc’s size yet bloc size depends upon how many nations join, so a single incidence of regionalism may trigger several rounds of membership requests from nations that were previously happy to stay out. We estimate a time-series of EU trade creation and diversion over the last five decades and use these to estimate a model EU membership demands. The results provide broad support for the model and show that trade diversion has a more powerful impact on membership than trade creation.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6389.

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Date of creation: Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6389

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Related research
Keywords: Domino theory of regionalism; Endogenous trade bloc formation; EU enlargement;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Richard E. Baldwin, 1997. "The Causes of Regionalism," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(7), pages 865-888, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Caroline Freund, 2000. "Different Paths To Free Trade: The Gains From Regionalism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1317-1341, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Fernandez, Raquel & Portes, Jonathan, 1998. "Returns to Regionalism: An Analysis of Nontraditional Gains from Regional Trade Agreements," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 197-220, May.
  4. Mansfield, Edward D. & Reinhardt, Eric, 2003. "Multilateral Determinants of Regionalism: The Effects of GATT/WTO on the Formation of Preferential Trading Arrangements," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(04), pages 829-862, November. [Downloadable!]
  5. John Whalley, 1996. "Why Do Countries Seek Regional Trade Agreements?," NBER Working Papers 5552, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Levy, Philip I, 1997. "A Political-Economic Analysis of Free-Trade Agreements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 506-19, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1995. "The Politics of Free-Trade Agreements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(4), pages 667-90, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Tammy Holmes, 2005. "What Drives Regional Trade Agreements that Work?," HEI Working Papers 07-2005, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies. [Downloadable!]
  9. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2004. "Economic determinants of free trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 29-63, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 49-63. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Bond, Eric W. & Syropoulos, Constantinos, 1996. "The size of trading blocs Market power and world welfare effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-4), pages 411-437, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Baldwin, Richard, 2000. "Regulatory Protectionism, Developing Nations and a Two-Tier World Trade System," CEPR Discussion Papers 2574, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Pravin Krishna, 1998. "Regionalism And Multilateralism: A Political Economy Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(1), pages 227-250, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Philippe Aghion & Pol Antràs & Elhanan Helpman, 2004. "Negotiating Free Trade," NBER Working Papers 10721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. John McLaren, 2002. "A Theory Of Insidious Regionalism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 571-608, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bas Straathof & Gert-Jan Linders & Arjan Lejour & Jan Möhlmann, 2008. "The Internal Market and the Dutch Economy," CPB Documents 168, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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