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Zeros, Quality and Space: Trade Theory and Trade Evidence

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Author Info
Baldwin, Richard
Harrigan, James

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Abstract

Product-level data on bilateral U.S. exports exhibit two strong patterns. First, most potential export flows are not present, and the incidence of these "export zeros" is strongly correlated with distance and importing country size. Second, export unit values are positively related to distance. We show that every well-known multi-good general equilibrium trade model is inconsistent with at least some of these facts. We also offer direct statistical evidence of the importance of trade costs in explaining zeros, using the long-term decline in the relative cost of air shipment to identify a difference-in-differences estimator. To match these facts, we propose a new version of the heterogeneous-firms trade model pioneered by Melitz (2003). In our model, high quality firms are the most competitive, with heterogeneous quality increasing with firms’ heterogeneous cost.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6368.

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Date of creation: Jun 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6368

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Related research
Keywords: Heterogeneous-firm trade models QHFT model Quality and trade Testing trade theories

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F0 - International Economics - - General
F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Robert C. Feenstra & Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "Putting Things In Order: Trade Dynamics And Product Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(3), pages 369-382, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Fernando Alvarez & Robert E. Lucas, 2005. "General Equilibrium Analysis of the Eaton-Kortum Model of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 11764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Andrew B. Bernard & Jonathan Eaton & J. Bradford Jensen & Samuel Kortum, 2003. "Plants and Productivity in International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1268-1290, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Micco, Alejandro & Serebrisky, Tomas, 2006. "Competition regimes and air transport costs: The effects of open skies agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 25-51, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hallak, Juan Carlos, 2006. "Product quality and the direction of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 238-265, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Gianmarco Ottaviano & Takatoshi Tabuchi & Jacques-FranÁois Thisse, 2002. "Agglomeration and Trade Revisited," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(2), pages 409-436, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Alan V Deardorff, 2004. "Local Comparative Advantage: Trade Costs and the Pattern of Trade," Working Papers 500, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan. [Downloadable!]
  8. Tibor Besedes & Thomas Prusa, 2006. "Ins, outs, and the duration of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 266-295, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Besedes, Tibor & Prusa, Thomas J., 2006. "Product differentiation and duration of US import trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 339-358, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Robert C. Feenstra & James R. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 430-447, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Yeaple, Stephen Ross, 2005. "A simple model of firm heterogeneity, international trade, and wages," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 1-20, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Francis Kramarz & Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2005. "An Anatomy of International Trade: Evidence from French Firms," 2005 Meeting Papers 197, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  13. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2007. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," NBER Working Papers 12927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Peter K. Schott, 2004. "Across-product Versus Within-product Specialization in International Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(2), pages 646-677, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Choi, E Kwan & Harrigan, James, 2004. "Handbook of International Trade," Staff General Research Papers 11375, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  16. Marc J. Melitz & Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, 2005. "Market Size, Trade, and Productivity," NBER Working Papers 11393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. repec:rus:hseeco:122203 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Richard Baldwin, 2005. "Heterogeneous Firms and Trade: Testable and Untestable Properties of the Melitz Model," NBER Working Papers 11471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Yo Chul Choi & David Hummels & Chong Xiang, 2006. "Explaining Import Variety and Quality: The Role of the Income Distribution," NBER Working Papers 12531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Elhanan Helpman & Marc J. Melitz & Stephen R. Yeaple, 2004. "Export versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 300-316, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Jon Haveman & David Hummels, 2004. "Alternative hypotheses and the volume of trade: the gravity equation and the extent of specialization," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 199-218, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Tetsugen Haruyama & Laixun Zhao, 2008. "Trade and Firm Heterogeneity In A Quality-Ladder Model of Growth," Discussion Paper Series 223, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Shepherd, Ben & Dennis, Allen, 2007. "Trade costs, barriers to entry, and export diversification in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4368, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Holger Görg & Richard Kneller & Balázs Muraközy, 2008. "What makes a successful export?," Kiel Working Papers 1399, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Hiau Looi Kee & Kala Krishna, 2007. "Firm Level Heterogeneous Productivity and Demand Shocks: Evidence from Bangladesh," NBER Working Papers 13698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Stephen Yeaple, 2008. "Firm Heterogeneity and the Structure of U.S. Multinational Activity: An Empirical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 14072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Volker Nitsch, 2007. "Die Another Day: Duration in German Import Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Martin, Will & Pham, Cong S., 2008. "Estimating the Gravity Equation when Zero Trade Flows are Frequent," MPRA Paper 9453, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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