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Robust Portfolio Optimisation with Multiple Experts

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Author Info
Lutgens, Frank
Schotman, Peter C
Abstract

We consider mean-variance portfolio choice of a robust investor. The investor receives advice from J experts, each with a different prior for the distribution of returns. Confronted with these multiple priors the investor follows a min-max portfolio strategy. We study the structure of the robust mean-variance portfolio and empirically compare its performance with a variety of alternative portfolio strategies. The empirical tests are based on bootstrap simulations on the 25 Fama-French portfolios and on 81 European country and value portfolios. We find that the robust portfolio performs well in both settings. Robust portfolios do not exhibit the extreme weights typically observed in naive mean-variance portfolios. Robust portfolios are also better diversified than portfolios that impose short-sell constraints to suppress the symptoms of extreme weights.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6161.

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Date of creation: Mar 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6161

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Related research
Keywords: mean-variance; model uncertainty; portfolio choice;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Jorion, Philippe, 1985. "International Portfolio Diversification with Estimation Risk," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(3), pages 259-78, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jorion, Philippe, 1986. "Bayes-Stein Estimation for Portfolio Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(03), pages 279-292, September. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ravi Jagannathan & Tongshu Ma, 2003. "Risk Reduction in Large Portfolios: Why Imposing the Wrong Constraints Helps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1651-1684, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Lorenzo Garlappi & Raman Uppal & Tan Wang, 2007. "Portfolio Selection with Parameter and Model Uncertainty: A Multi-Prior Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 41-81, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2000. "Comparing asset pricing models: an investment perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 335-381, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Peter Klibanoff & Massimo Marinacci & Sujoy Mukerji, 2005. "A Smooth Model of Decision Making under Ambiguity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(6), pages 1849-1892, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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