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Persistence, Performance and Prices in Foreign Exchange Markets

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Author Info
Ramadorai, Tarun

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Abstract

Using detailed data on currency transactions of institutional investors, this paper shows that funds that experience high returns on their currency holdings also execute currency trades at more favourable prices. This observation is consistent with foreign exchange dealers bidding for information from successful traders. If true, this provides little incentive for successful funds to intertemporally split orders to avoid tipping off dealers. In accordance with this, the paper finds that better performing funds have less persistent currency order flow. These results are consistent with the theoretical model of Naik, Neuberger and Viswanathan [1999]. The results can also be explained by the funds acting as secondary providers of liquidity in these markets, or by dealers perceiving that funds have different price elasticities of demand for currencies, and pricing accordingly.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5861.

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Date of creation: Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5861

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Related research
Keywords: foreign exchange; microstructure; order flow; performance;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2001. "The Information Content of International Portfolio Flows," NBER Working Papers 8472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Forster, Margaret M. & George, Thomas J., 1992. "Anonymity in securities markets," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 168-206, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Pagano, Marco & Roell, Ailsa, 1996. " Transparency and Liquidity: A Comparison of Auction and Dealer Markets with Informed Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 579-611, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Ian W. Marsh, 2000. "How Do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?," NBER Working Papers 7524, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Keim, Donald B & Madhaven, Ananth, 1996. "The Upstairs Market for Large-Block Transactions: Analysis and Measurement of Price Effects," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 1-36. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Lyons, Richard K., 1996. "Optimal Transparency in a Dealer Market with an Application to Foreign Exchange," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 225-254, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Naik, Narayan Y & Neuberger, Anthony & Viswanathan, S, 1999. "Trade Disclosure Regulations in Markets with Negotiated Trades," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 873-900.
  8. Roll, Richard, 1984. " A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1127-39, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Erik Theissen, 2002. "Trader Anonymity, Price Formation and Liquidity," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse20_2002, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  12. Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G. J. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2001. "The portfolio flows of international investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 151-193, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Seppi, Duane J, 1990. " Equilibrium Block Trading and Asymmetric Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 73-94, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Madhavan, Ananth & Cheng, Minder, 1997. "In Search of Liquidity: Block Trades in the Upstairs and Downstairs Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(1), pages 175-203.
  15. Chan, Louis K C & Lakonishok, Josef, 1995. " The Behavior of Stock Prices around Institutional Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1147-74, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Bollerslev, Tim & Melvin, Michael, 1994. "Bid--ask spreads and volatility in the foreign exchange market : An empirical analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 355-372, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Huang, Roger D. & Stoll, Hans R., 1996. "Dealer versus auction markets: A paired comparison of execution costs on NASDAQ and the NYSE," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 313-357, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Huang, Roger D & Stoll, Hans R, 1997. "The Components of the Bid-Ask Spread: A General Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 995-1034.
  19. Fishman, Michael J & Longstaff, Francis A, 1992. " Dual Trading in Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 643-71, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Dan Bernhardt & Vladimir Dvoracek & Eric Hughson & Ingrid M. Werner, 2005. "Why Do Larger Orders Receive Discounts on the London Stock Exchange?," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1343-1368. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Stoll, Hans R, 1989. " Inferring the Components of the Bid-Ask Spread: Theory and Empirical Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 115-34, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Green, Richard C. & Hollifield, Burton & Schurhoff, Norman, 2007. "Dealer intermediation and price behavior in the aftermarket for new bond issues," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 643-682, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  23. Roell, Ailsa, 1990. "Dual-capacity trading and the quality of the market," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 105-124, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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