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Marketwide Private Information in Stocks: Forecasting Currency Returns

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Author Info
Albuquerque, Rui
de Francisco, Eva
Marques, Luis

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Abstract

We present a model of equity trading with informed and uninformed investors where informed investors act upon firm-specific private information and marketwide private information. The model is used to structurally identify the component of order flow that is due to marketwide private information. Trades driven by marketwide private information display very little or no correlation with the first principal component of order flow. This finding implies that a simple statistical factor is a poor measure of marketwide private information. Moreover, the model suggests that the previously documented comovement in order flow captures mostly common variation in liquidity trades. We find that marketwide private information obtained from equity market data forecasts industry stock returns and foreign exchange returns consistent with Evans and Lyons' (2004a) model of exchange rate determination.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5604.

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Date of creation: Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5604

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Related research
Keywords: currency returns; equity returns; firm-specific private information; marketwide private information; order flow; principal components;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Martin Evans & Richard Lyons, 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance, Working Paper Series 1007, Research Program in Finance, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2004. "A New Micro Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 10379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Albuquerque, Rui & Bauer, Gregor H & Schneider, Martin, 2006. "Global Private Information in International Equity Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5819, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Caballe, Jordi & Krishnan, Murugappa, 1994. "Imperfect Competition in a Multi-security Market with Risk Neutrality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 695-704, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Vega, Clara, 2006. "Stock price reaction to public and private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 103-133, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2004. "Predicting returns with financial ratios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 209-235, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Michael J. Brennan. and H. Henry Cao., 1997. "International Portfolio Investment Flows," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-271, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
  10. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2004. "International Equity Flows and Returns: A Quantitative Equilibrium Approach," International Finance 0405006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Rime,D., 2000. "Private or public information in foreign exchange markets? : an empirical analysis," Memorandum 14/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Lee, Charles M. C. & Radhakrishna, Balkrishna, 2000. "Inferring investor behavior: Evidence from TORQ data," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 83-111, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. David Easley & Robert F. Engle & Maureen O'Hara & Liuren Wu, 2002. "Time-Varying Arrival Rates of Informed and Uninformed Trades," Finance 0207017, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2007. "Exchange Rate Fundamentals and Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 13151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Easley, David & Kiefer, Nicholas M & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "One Day in the Life of a Very Common Stock," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 805-35.
  19. Kumar, Praveen & Seppi, Duane J, 1994. "Information and Index Arbitrage," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(4), pages 481-509, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Gehrig, Thomas, 1993. " An Information Based Explanation of the Domestic Bias in International Equity Investment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 95(1), pages 97-109.
  22. Chan, Kalok, 1993. " Imperfect Information and Cross-Autocorrelation among Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1211-30, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Ellis, Katrina & Michaely, Roni & O'Hara, Maureen, 2000. "The Accuracy of Trade Classification Rules: Evidence from Nasdaq," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(04), pages 529-551, December. [Downloadable!]
  24. Gregory H. Bauer & Clara Vega, 2004. "The Monetary Origins of Asymmetric Information in International Equity Markets," Working Papers 04-47, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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  25. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Bill B. Francis & Iftekhar Hasan & Delroy M. Hunter, 2006. "Dynamic Relations between International Equity and Currency Markets: The Role of Currency Order Flow," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(1), pages 219-258, January. [Downloadable!]
  27. Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1991. "A Theory of Trading in Stock Index Futures," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(1), pages 17-51. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Linda S. Goldberg & Cedric Tille, 2005. "Vehicle currency use in international trade," Staff Reports 200, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2009. "Private information, stock markets, and exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 271, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  2. Craig Burnside & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2007. "Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach," NBER Working Papers 13278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-24.

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