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Marketwide Private Information in Stocks: Forecasting Currency Returns

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  • Albuquerque, Rui
  • de Francisco, Eva
  • Marques, Luis

Abstract

We present a model of equity trading with informed and uninformed investors where informed investors act upon firm-specific private information and marketwide private information. The model is used to structurally identify the component of order flow that is due to marketwide private information. Trades driven by marketwide private information display very little or no correlation with the first principal component of order flow. This finding implies that a simple statistical factor is a poor measure of marketwide private information. Moreover, the model suggests that the previously documented comovement in order flow captures mostly common variation in liquidity trades. We find that marketwide private information obtained from equity market data forecasts industry stock returns and foreign exchange returns consistent with Evans and Lyons' (2004a) model of exchange rate determination.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5604.

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Date of creation: Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5604

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Keywords: currency returns; equity returns; firm-specific private information; marketwide private information; order flow; principal components;

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References

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  3. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2004. "A New Micro Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 10379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory H. Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2004. "International Equity Flows and Returns: A Quantitative Equilibrium Approach," Working Papers 04-42, Bank of Canada.
  5. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2007. "Exchange Rate Fundamentals and Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 13151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jacob Gyntelberg & Subhanij Tientip & Mico Loretan, 2012. "Private Information, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 12/213, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2010. "Private information, stock markets, and exchange rates," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 186-210 Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Ülkü, Numan & Demirci, Ebru, 2012. "Joint dynamics of foreign exchange and stock markets in emerging Europe," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 55-86.
  4. Kees E. Bouwman & Elvira Sojli & Wing Wah Tham, 2012. "Aggregate Stock Market Illiquidity and Bond Risk Premia," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-140/IV/DSF46, Tinbergen Institute.
  5. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 127-54, July.
  6. Lukas Mankhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2013. "Information Flows in Dark Markets: Dissecting Customer Currency Trades," BIS Working Papers 405, Bank for International Settlements.
  7. Foucault, Thierry & Fresard, Laurent, 2014. "Learning from peers' stock prices and corporate investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 554-577.
  8. Pasquariello, Paolo & Vega, Clara, 2009. "The on-the-run liquidity phenomenon," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-24, April.
  9. Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat & Charoenwong, Charlie & Ding, David K., 2011. "Information asymmetry in warrants and their underlying stocks on the stock exchange of Thailand," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 474-487, June.
  10. Gençay, Ramazan & Gradojevic, Nikola, 2013. "Private information and its origins in an electronic foreign exchange market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 86-93.
  11. Skjeltorp, Johannes & Ødegaard, Bernt Arne, 2009. "The information content of market liquidity: An empirical analysis of liquidity at the Oslo Stock Exchange," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/35, University of Stavanger.
  12. repec:dgr:uvatin:2012140 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Ferreira Filipe, Sara, 2012. "Equity order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 359-381.
  14. Lynch, Andrew & Nikolic, Biljana & Yan, Xuemin (Sterling) & Yu, Han, 2014. "Aggregate short selling, commonality, and stock market returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 199-229.
  15. Tirapat, Sunti & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2013. "Opportunistic insider trading," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1046-1061.

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