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Sustainable Intervention Policies and Exchange Rate Dynamics

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Author Info
Bertola, Giuseppe
Caballero, Ricardo

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Abstract

Recently developed models of exchange rate dynamics emphasize the expectational effects of infrequent intervention. This paper proposes a stylized probabilistic framework in which such effects can be studied along with realistic concerns about the sustainability of the intervention policy. In this framework, the level of reserves determines the extent to which non-linear intervention affects the level of exchange rates and their sensitivity to movements in fundamentals. We show that all such effects are absent when the possible reserve levels are weighted by their long-run probabilities.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 504.

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Date of creation: Jan 1991
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:504

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Related research
Keywords: Exchange Rates; Reserves; Sustainability of Intervention; Target Zones;

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  1. Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1991. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," NBER Working Papers 3576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Geert Bekaert & Stephen F. Gray, 1999. "Target Zones and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 5445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Mark Trede & Bernd Wilfling, 2007. "Estimating exchange rate dynamics with diffusion processes: an application to Greek EMU data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 23-39, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. José Antonio Licandro, 1993. "Análisis de la Zona Objetivo para el Tipo de Cambio en Chile," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 30(90), pages 179-198. [Downloadable!]
  5. M. Isabel Campos & Zenón Jiménez-Ridruejo, . "Were the Peseta Exchange Rate Crises Forecastable During Target Zone Period?," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 00-07, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  6. M. Isabel Campos & Zenón Jiménez-Ridruejo, 2003. "Were the peseta exchange rate crises forecastable during target zone period?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1087-1099, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Campos, M. Isabel & Herrera, Julio & Jimenez-Ridruejo, Zenon, 1999. "Censured Exchange Rates in a Discrete Time Target Zones Model: The Spanish Peseta/Deutsche Mark Case," ERSA conference papers ersa99pa183, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
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