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Did Inflation Really Soar After the Euro Cash Changeover? Indirect Evidence from ATM Withdrawals

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  • Lippi, Francesco
  • Angelini, Paolo

Abstract

The introduction of the euro notes and coins during the first months of 2002 was followed by a lively debate on the alleged inflationary effects of the new currency. In Italy, as in the rest of the euro area, survey-based measures signaled a much sharper rise in inflation than measured by the official price indices, whose quality was called into question. In this paper we gather indirect evidence on the behaviour of prices from the analysis of cash withdrawals from ATM and their determinants. Since these data do not rely on official inflation statistics, they provide an independent check for the latter. We present a simple theoretical model in which the relationship between aggregate ATM withdrawals and aggregate expenditure is not homogenous of degree one in the price level, a prediction which is strongly supported by the data. This feature allows us to test the hypothesis that, after the introduction of the euro notes and coins, consumer prices underwent an increase not recorded by official inflation statistics. We do not find evidence in support of this hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Lippi, Francesco & Angelini, Paolo, 2005. "Did Inflation Really Soar After the Euro Cash Changeover? Indirect Evidence from ATM Withdrawals," CEPR Discussion Papers 4950, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4950
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Ehrmann, 2011. "Inflation Developments and Perceptions after the Euro Cash Changeover," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(1), pages 33-58, February.
    2. Bart Hobijn & Federico Ravenna & Andrea Tambalotti, 2006. "Menu Costs at Work: Restaurant Prices and the Introduction of the Euro," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 1103-1131.
    3. Eugenio Gaiotti & Francesco Lippi, 2008. "Pricing behaviour and the introduction of the euro: evidence from a panel of restaurants," Springer Books, in: Paolo Giovane & Roberto Sabbatini (ed.), The Euro, Inflation and Consumer’s Perceptions, chapter 3, pages 71-107, Springer.
    4. repec:pri:cepsud:101mastrobuoni is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Giovanni Mastrobuoni, 2004. "The Effects of the Euro-Conversion on Prices and Price Perceptions," Working Papers 101, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    6. Giovanni Mastrobuoni & Wioletta Dziuda, 2005. "The Euro Changeover and Its Effects on Price Transparency, and Inflation. Mission Euro, Mission Accomplished!," International Finance 0503003, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 May 2005.
    7. Giovanni Mastrobuoni, 2004. "The Effects of the Euro-Conversion on Prices and Price Perceptions," Working Papers 101, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Columba, Francesco, 2008. "The speed of euro adoption," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 249-259, March.
    2. Marco Ercolani, 2010. "Transitional price rises with the adoption of the euro: aggregate and disaggregate sector evidence," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 137-157.
    3. Marco Ercolani, 2010. "Transitional price rises with the adoption of the euro: aggregate and disaggregate sector evidence," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 137-157.
    4. Luc Aucremanne & Marianne Collin & Thomas Stragier, 2007. "Assessing the Gap between Observed and Perceived Inflation in the Euro Area : Is the Credibility of the HICP at Stake ?," Working Paper Research 112, National Bank of Belgium.
    5. Wioletta Dziuda & Giovanni Mastrobuoni, 2009. "The Euro Changeover and Its Effects on Price Transparency and Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 101-129, February.
    6. Sauro Mocetti, 2012. "Educational choices and the selection process: before and after compulsory schooling," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 189-209, February.
    7. Marco G. Ercolani & Jayasri Dutta, 2006. "The Euro-changeoverand Euro-inflation: Evidence from Eurostat's HICP," Discussion Papers 06-03, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    8. Paolo Giovane & Roberto Sabbatini, 2008. "Perceived and measured inflation after the launch of the euro: explaining the gap in Italy," Springer Books, in: Paolo Giovane & Roberto Sabbatini (ed.), The Euro, Inflation and Consumer’s Perceptions, chapter 1, pages 13-49, Springer.
    9. Ehrmann, Michael, 2006. "Rational inattention, inflation developments and perceptions after the euro cash changeover," Working Paper Series 588, European Central Bank.
    10. Arkadiusz Manikowski, 2017. "Analysis of the denomination structure of the Polish currency in the context of the launch of the new 500 zloty banknote," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 48(5), pages 495-530.
    11. Thomas A. Eife, 2006. "Price setting behaviour and price setting regulations at the euro changeover," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2006-06, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Oct 2006.
    12. Bianca Steliana Pîra (Beşa), 2014. "Preparing The Euro Changeover – Romania'S Case," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 8(2), pages 392-409, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro changeover; inflation; Currency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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