Strategic Experimentation and Disruptive Technological Change
AbstractThis paper studies the diffusion of a new technology that is brought to market while its potential is still uncertain. We consider a dynamic game in which firms improve both a new and a rival old technology while learning about the relative potential of both technologies. We use the model to understand historical evidence on diffusion and market structure. In particular, the model explains why a change in market leadership often goes along with slow diffusion. It also provides a rational explanation for observed ‘incumbent inertia’ and shows how markets can make mistakes in the selection of new technologies.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4925.
Date of creation: Feb 2005
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
Other versions of this item:
- Fabiano Schivardi & Martin Schneider, 2008. "Strategic Experimentation and Disruptive Technological Change," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(2), pages 386-412, April.
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
- C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
- D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
- L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
- O31 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-06-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-GTH-2005-06-14 (Game Theory)
- NEP-INO-2005-06-14 (Innovation)
- NEP-TID-2005-06-14 (Technology & Industrial Dynamics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jovanovic, Boyan & MacDonald, Glenn M, 1994.
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 24-52, February.
- Jovanovic, B. & Macdonald, G.M., 1988. "Competitive Diffusion," RCER Working Papers 160, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Boyan Jovanovic & Glenn MacDonald, 1994. "Competitive Diffusion," NBER Working Papers 4463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jovanovic, B. & MacDonald, G.M., 1991. "Competitive Diffusion," Papers 92-08, Rochester, Business - Financial Research and Policy Studies.
- Jovanovic, Boyan & MacDonald, Glenn M., 1988. "Competitive Diffusion," Working Papers 88-29, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Macdonald, G.M., 1988. "Competitive Diffusion," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 88-10, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
- Aaron Tornell, 1997.
"Rational Atrophy: The U.S. Steel Industry,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1806, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Parente Stephen L., 1994. "Technology Adoption, Learning-by-Doing, and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 346-369, August.
- Ulrich Doraszelski & Sarit Markovich, 2004. "Advertising Dynamics and Competitive Advantage," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 61, Society for Computational Economics.
- Bergemann, Dirk & Valimaki, Juuso, 1996.
"Learning and Strategic Pricing,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1125-49, September.
- Aghion, P. & Espinoza, M.P. & Jullien, B., 1990.
"Dynamic Duopoly With Learning Through Market Experimentation,"
DELTA Working Papers
90-13, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Aghion, Philippe & Espinosa, Maria Paz & Jullien, Bruno, 1993. "Dynamic Duopoly with Learning through Market Experimentation," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 517-39, July.
- Jullien Bruno & Aghion Philippe & Paz Espinoza M, 1990. "Dynamic duopoly with learning through market experimentation," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9012, CEPREMAP.
- Ulrich Doraszelski & Sarit Markovich, 2004. "Advertising Dynamics and Competitive Advantage," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 162, Econometric Society.
- Jovanovic, Boyan & Nyarko, Yaw, 1996.
"Learning by Doing and the Choice of Technology,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1299-1310, November.
- Boyan Jovanovic & Yaw Nyarko, 1994. "Learning By Doing and the Choice of Technology," NBER Working Papers 4739, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jovanovic, B. & Nyarko, Y., 1996. "Learning by Doing and the Choice of Technology," Working Papers 96-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Aghion, Philippe & Harris, Christopher & Vickers, John, 1997. "Competition and growth with step-by-step innovation: An example," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 771-782, April.
- April Mitchell Franco & Darren Filson, 2000.
"Knowledge Diffusion through Employee Mobility,"
Claremont Colleges Working Papers
2000-61, Claremont Colleges.
- Bhattacharya, Sudipto & Chatterjee, Kalyan & Samuelson, Larry, 1986. "Sequential Research and the Adoption of Innovations," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(0), pages 219-43, Suppl. No.
- Aghion, Philippe, et al, 2001. "Competition, Imitation and Growth with Step-by-Step Innovation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 467-92, July.
- Ericson, Richard & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January.
- Luís M. B. Cabral, 2003. "R&D Competition when firms Choose Variance," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 139-150, 03.
- Sarah Kaplan & Fiona Murray & Rebecca Henderson, 2003. "Discontinuities and senior management: assessing the role of recognition in pharmaceutical firm response to biotechnology," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 203-233, April.
- Iansiti, Marco & Khanna, Tarun, 1995. "Technological Evolution, System Architecture and the Obsolescence of Firm Capabilities," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 333-61.
- Kenneth L. Judd, 1985.
"Closed-Loop Equilibrium in a Multi-Stage Innovation Race,"
647, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Kenneth L. Judd, 2003. "Closed-loop equilibrium in a multi-stage innovation race," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 673-695, 03.
- Jensen, Richard, 1982. "Adoption and diffusion of an innovation of uncertain profitability," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 182-193, June.
- Lynne G. Zucker & Michael R. Darby, 1996. "Costly Information in Firm Transformation, Exit, or Persistent Failure," NBER Working Papers 5577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chari, V V & Hopenhayn, Hugo, 1991. "Vintage Human Capital, Growth, and the Diffusion of New Technology," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1142-65, December.
- Kevin F. McCardle, 1985. "Information Acquisition and the Adoption of New Technology," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(11), pages 1372-1389, November.
- Fudenberg, Drew & Gilbert, Richard & Stiglitz, Joseph & Tirole, Jean, 1983. "Preemption, leapfrogging and competition in patent races," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-31, June.
- Budd, Christopher & Harris, Christopher & Vickers, John, 1993. "A Model of the Evolution of Duopoly: Does the Asymmetry between Firms Tend to Increase or Decrease?," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 543-73, July.
- Harris, Christopher & Vickers, John, 1987. "Racing with Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 1-21, January.
- Patrick Bolton & Christopher Harris, 1999. "Strategic Experimentation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 349-374, March.
- Weintraub, Gabriel Y. & Benkard, C. Lanier & Van Roy, Benjamin, 2007. "Markov Perfect Industry Dynamics with Many Firms," Research Papers 1919r, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- Baccara, Mariagiovanna & Razin, Ronny, 2004.
"Curb Your Innovation: Corporate Conservatism in the Presence of Imperfect Intellectual Property Rights,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4466, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mariagiovanna Baccara & Ronny Razin, 2004. "Curb Your Innovation: Corporate Conservatism in the Presence of Imperfect Intellectual Property Rights," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000000194, David K. Levine.
- Malerba, Franco, 2007. "Innovation and the dynamics and evolution of industries: Progress and challenges," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 675-699, August.
- Fabiano Schivardi, 1998.
"Reallocation and Learning over the Business Cycle,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
345, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Carlos J.Pérez & Carlos J.Ponce, 2013. "Disruption costs and the choice of technology," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv292, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
- Weintraub, Gabriel Y. & Benkard, C. Lanier & Van Roy, Benjamin, 2007. "Computational Methods for Oblivious Equilibrium," Research Papers 1969, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- Horvath, Michael & Schivardi, Fabiano & Woywode, Michael, 2001. "On industry life-cycles: delay, entry, and shakeout in beer brewing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1023-1052, July.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.