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Strategic Experimentation and Disruptive Technological Change

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  • Schivardi, Fabiano
  • Schneider, Martin

Abstract

This paper studies the diffusion of a new technology that is brought to market while its potential is still uncertain. We consider a dynamic game in which firms improve both a new and a rival old technology while learning about the relative potential of both technologies. We use the model to understand historical evidence on diffusion and market structure. In particular, the model explains why a change in market leadership often goes along with slow diffusion. It also provides a rational explanation for observed ‘incumbent inertia’ and shows how markets can make mistakes in the selection of new technologies.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4925.

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Date of creation: Feb 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4925

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Keywords: dynamic games; innovation; learning; oligopoly;

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References

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  1. Jovanovic, Boyan & MacDonald, Glenn M, 1994. "Competitive Diffusion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 24-52, February.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Weintraub, Gabriel Y. & Benkard, C. Lanier & Van Roy, Benjamin, 2007. "Markov Perfect Industry Dynamics with Many Firms," Research Papers 1919r, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  2. Baccara, Mariagiovanna & Razin, Ronny, 2004. "Curb Your Innovation: Corporate Conservatism in the Presence of Imperfect Intellectual Property Rights," CEPR Discussion Papers 4466, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Malerba, Franco, 2007. "Innovation and the dynamics and evolution of industries: Progress and challenges," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 675-699, August.
  4. Fabiano Schivardi, 1998. "Reallocation and Learning over the Business Cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 345, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  5. Carlos J.Pérez & Carlos J.Ponce, 2013. "Disruption costs and the choice of technology," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv292, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
  6. Weintraub, Gabriel Y. & Benkard, C. Lanier & Van Roy, Benjamin, 2007. "Computational Methods for Oblivious Equilibrium," Research Papers 1969, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  7. Horvath, Michael & Schivardi, Fabiano & Woywode, Michael, 2001. "On industry life-cycles: delay, entry, and shakeout in beer brewing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1023-1052, July.

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