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The `Walters' Critique of the EMS: A Case of Inconsistent Expectations

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  • Miller, Marcus
  • Sutherland, Alan

Abstract

Alan Walters has suggested that the European Monetary System will prove dynamically unstable when capital controls are removed. The argument is analysed within a model that includes overlapping contracts. It is found that the short-run effects predicted by Walters only arise when the credibility of the peg differs as between the labour and financial markets: but even if such a difference exists the system is stable in the long run.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 480.

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Date of creation: Nov 1990
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:480

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Keywords: Credibility; Disinflation; European Monetary System; Stability;

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Blog mentions

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  1. Esto hay que pagarlo: la historia de los tres cerditos y el lobo II
    by Cives in Politikon on 2012-05-09 12:00:00
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Cited by:
  1. Alan Ahearne & Juan Delgado & Jakob von Weizsäcker, 2008. "A tail of two countries," Policy Briefs 6, Bruegel.
  2. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1993. "Fixed Exchange Rates as a Means to Price Stability: What Have We Learned," NBER Working Papers 4504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Paolo Giovane & Lorenzo Bini-Smashi, 1996. "Convergence of inflation: A necessary prerequisite for EMU?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 117-126, April.
  4. von Hagen, Jurgen & Hofmann, Boris, 2004. "Macroeconomic implications of low inflation in the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 5-23, March.
  5. Kirsanova, Tatiana & Vines, David & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Within a Currency Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 5584, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Lars Calmfors & Giancarlo Corsetti & Michael P. Devereux & Seppo Honkapohja & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Xavier Vives, 2007. "Chapter 2: Macroeonomic adjustment in the euro area – the cases of Ireland and Italy," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo Group Munich, vol. 0, pages 59-72, 02.
  7. Oliver Landmann, 2009. "EMU@10: Coping with Rotating Slumps," Discussion Paper Series 9, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised Jul 2009.

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