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The `Walters' Critique of the EMS: A Case of Inconsistent Expectations

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Author Info
Miller, Marcus
Sutherland, Alan

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Abstract

Alan Walters has suggested that the European Monetary System will prove dynamically unstable when capital controls are removed. The argument is analysed within a model that includes overlapping contracts. It is found that the short-run effects predicted by Walters only arise when the credibility of the peg differs as between the labour and financial markets: but even if such a difference exists the system is stable in the long run.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 480.

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Date of creation: Nov 1990
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:480

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Related research
Keywords: Credibility; Disinflation; European Monetary System; Stability;

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  1. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "Fixed Exchange Rates as a Means to Price Stability: What Have We Learned," NBER Working Papers 4504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Kirsanova, Tatiana & Vines, David & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Within a Currency Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 5584, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Paolo Giovane & Lorenzo Bini-Smashi, 1996. "Convergence of inflation: A necessary prerequisite for EMU?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 117-126, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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